Support level is a key concept in Technical Analysis that is very helpful in determining the right moment to buy in an uptrend or to cover short positions in a downtrend. In other words, if gold is declining and it's moving toward a price level at which it reversed several times in the past, we can say that it's gold support level.
Gold Support Level
The support level in gold is the price level, at which the buying interest is strong enough to overcome selling pressure and push the price higher. Support usually refers to the previous low(s), lines that are created by drawing the line between previous important bottoms or important tops and then extrapolating this line into the future. You can see the example of gold support in action on the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com/). In this case it was the Fibonacci retracement level (you will find details in the following part of this definition) that provided support for gold prices. Please note that gold moved slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the December 2016 low and the September 2017 high, however, it rallied shortly thereafter. This support level seems to have worked multiple times in October 2017 and November 2017.
The Psychology of Support
The formation of support levels is rooted in human psychology. To illustrate this notion let us divide the market into three groups of people: the buyers, the sellers, and the uncommitted. Let us further assume that after some time of gold price fluctuating around the support level, it starts to rise. The ones on the long side of the gold market are happy, yet regret not having bought more. Should an opportunity arise (i.e. should the gold price return to that support level) they could increase their commitment by adding to their long positions. The ones on the short side of the market realize they made the wrong decision and are hoping that the gold price will go down to the place where they entered the market so they could liquidate their positions. Finally, the uncommitted see that a new uptrend (be it short or long term one) has begun and are waiting for the next good opportunity to buy. So when the price finally drops their concerted effort is strong enough to push it upwards after reaching the gold support level.
Determining the Strength of a Support Level
The significance of a support level (also in gold) can be measured in three ways:
- Time spent in the support area – the greater it is, the more important that area becomes.
- Volume – the greater it is, the more significant the support level is. That is because heavy volume indicates bigger interest in that area and corresponds with more people participating.
- How recently the trading near the support level took place – the more recent the trading, the more significant the support level is. It is because people remember recent events more clearly and in a more vivid way and since the formation of support depends on people’s feelings and emotions this factor is quite important.
Rising and Falling Support Lines
So far, only horizontal (or nearly horizontal) support lines were considered. But once an uptrend has begun, it is often impossible for the price to fall down to the point where it begun to rise in the first place. And in a downtrend consecutive support levels are usually lower and lower. This is why trendlines (in uptrends) or channel lines (in downtrends) are often used as support lines.
An upper trendline is a line that connects (at least two) troughs in an uptrend. Once an upper trendline is established, it is treated as a support line. A chart below shows an example of an upper trendline acting as a support line:
A channel is an extension of the trendline technique. Sometimes price trend between two parallel lines, one of which is the trendline – these lines are said to form a channel. In a downtrend, a trendline is constructed by joining the successive peaks, hence the parallel channel line joins the consecutive troughs. And this line may serve as a support line in a downtrend. An example of a channel is presented below:
Retracement Levels as Support
Another way of finding future support lines in the market is the idea of retracement levels. This notion stems from the observation that after a move in the direction of the prevailing trend, the price tends to retrace some part of it. The breadth of this correcting move depends mostly upon the strength of the main trend. There are various popular sets of these retracement levels, two of which seem to be employed most often: 33%, 50%, 66% and 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%. The latter group is called Fibonacci retracement levels and seems to be slightly more accurate than the first one. An example of Fibonacci retracement levels can be seen on the chart below:
The silver support levels obtained through the use of Fibonacci retracement levels proved accurate in the analysis of silver price movements.
Support Line Breach (a.k.a. Breakdown) and Role Reversal
If a support line is penetrated by a significant amount, it becomes a resistance line, i.e. a line off which the price is more likely to bounce than to cross it from below – it is a concept contrary to the one of support. The same psychological factors (such as grief and regret) as in the formation of support play an important role in this case. An example of a support line becoming a resistance line is shown below:
Verification of a Breakdown
In order to consider a violation of a support line valid, at least one of the criteria listed below should be met:
- The move below the support line should be significant. There is no clear rule telling what constitutes a significant move. Some use 3% as a benchmark in case of important support levels and 1 % in the short-term ones.
- It should be accompanied by high volume.
- Price should close below the support level for 3 constructive trading days to confirm the breakout .
The idea of support is a fundamental one in technical analysis. It can be very useful in making investment decisions as it allows a trader and an investor to predict certain market moves (mostly price bottoms).