It was just two days ago when I wrote that Trump will extend his ultimatum again. We didn't have to wait long.
Note: this is the final free article of the month and likely for some time in April. The analysis continues – to its full extent – in the Gold Trading Alerts.
On Thursday evening, after markets closed, Trump posted on Truth Social: "As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time." This is the second extension of the original 48-hour deadline from Saturday, March 22. The pattern is now so predictable that calling it in advance has become routine.
But something more important is happening beneath the surface of these extensions. The market's response to Trump's announcements is decaying, and the speed of that decay tells us something critical about what comes next.
Let me walk through the numbers.
On March 9 (day 10 of the war), Trump said the conflict was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped sharply. The S&P 500 rallied and held the gains for multiple sessions. The "de-escalation trade" worked for days before reality reasserted itself and oil climbed back above $100.
On March 21 (day 22), Trump posted that the U.S. was "getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts." Oil dipped, stocks bounced. Within 24 hours, he issued the 48-hour power plant ultimatum, the most escalatory threat of the entire war. The "de-escalation trade" lasted hours, not days.
On March 23 (day 24), Trump announced "very good and productive conversations" with Iran and postponed the strikes for five days. Oil crashed 11% in a single session. The S&P 500 surged 1.15%. The Dow jumped 631 points. By Tuesday, Brent was already back above $104. The bounce lasted roughly one day.
On March 26 (day 27), Trump extended the deadline by 10 more days to April 6. He posted this after the market close. Friday morning, S&P futures opened down 0.4%. Oil was UP 2.15%. Gold was up 0.79%. The VIX climbed to 29.56. The market barely flinched. The announcement that would have triggered a 2%+ rally two weeks ago now produces... nothing.
That's a credibility decay curve, and it's accelerating. Each cycle of "Trump announces progress → Iran denies → fighting continues → oil recovers → stocks give back gains" erodes the market's willingness to buy the next headline. Iran's military spokesperson mocking Washington on state television ("Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?") gets replayed across global media. Each denial makes the next "productive talks" headline worth less.
Now, consider the timing of Trump's latest announcement. He posted it AFTER Thursday's market close. The S&P 500 had just broken below its late-2025 lows and 6,500, a technically significant level. His approval rating sits at 36%, the lowest of his second term. He has every incentive to try to arrest the decline.
From studying Trump's behavior, I've documented a specific pattern that I think is relevant here. Trump disproportionately delivers his most consequential market-moving announcements on Friday evenings and weekends, when equity markets are closed. His former National Security Advisor John Bolton confirmed that "foreign-policy announcements were sometimes timed with trading hours in mind." The logic is straightforward: a Friday night or weekend announcement gives markets time to absorb the news, prevents a real-time feedback loop of crashing prices during a live announcement, and gives his team time to gauge the reaction and adjust before Monday's open.
With stocks breaking down to new lows heading into this weekend, I think we should expect a follow-up announcement designed to amplify the 10-day extension. Five plausible headlines (remember: that’s just my speculation – none of that happened):
- "Iran has agreed to allow ALL ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting immediately. A GREAT sign of progress!"
- "Very productive call with Iranian leaders. Major deal coming SOON. Could be the biggest deal in history!"
- "Pakistan summit confirmed for next week. JD Vance and Steve Witkoff will meet Iranian officials. Peace is close!"
- "Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium as a sign of good faith. We are WINNING!"
- "Spoke with Netanyahu. Israel fully supports the peace process. All parties moving toward TOTAL RESOLUTION!"
The double-statement pattern (Thursday evening extension, then a weekend follow-up) serves a specific purpose. The Thursday extension sets the baseline: "we're not bombing power plants this week." The weekend statement adds the emotional catalyst: "something positive is happening." Together, they're designed to create a Monday morning gap-up in futures. We've seen this exact one-two sequence play out repeatedly during tariff negotiations last year.
In fact, it appears the process may already be underway.
Gold and silver are slightly higher this morning, with gold at $4,462 and silver at $68.03 (the bullish thing about silver’s pause is that it did not decline despite stocks’ decline).
Crude oil and USD Index are both up and yet, PMs are higher, which is bullish for the very short term. Perhaps metals are early to react.
The 10-day extension provides the narrative framework. A weekend headline would provide the catalyst.
So: will it work this time?
I think this may be the last time Trump is able to temporarily arrest the stock market decline. Here's why:
The credibility decay curve I described above is not slowing down. It's accelerating. The market impact has gone from days (March 9), to hours (March 21), to one day (March 23), to essentially zero (March 26). Even if Trump delivers the most optimistic possible headline this weekend, the pattern suggests the resulting bounce will be shallow and short-lived. Markets have seen this movie three times. The fourth showing draws a smaller crowd.
More importantly, the structural picture hasn't changed. Iran rejected the 15-point peace plan. Iran's military says "no one like us will make a deal with you. Not now. Not ever." Israel warned Friday that it will expand its attacks on Iran. The Pentagon is deploying 2,000-3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The IEA says 40+ energy facilities across nine countries are severely damaged, requiring months to repair. Oil is at $96.51 this morning and trending higher, not lower. None of these facts change because Trump posts on Truth Social.
Once market participants fully internalize that Trump's de-escalation headlines are a recurring pattern rather than genuine progress toward resolution, the credibility premium evaporates completely. At that point, stocks stop bouncing and start pricing the structural reality: oil at $90-100+ for months, inflation sticky above 3%, the Fed trapped at 3.50-3.75% with no cuts coming (and Macquarie projecting the next move as a hike), and earnings compression across the economy. The USDX breaks above 100 on rate differentials. Gold and silver resume their decline as the USD strengthens. Mining stocks follow equities lower. And equities themselves… collapse.
The S&P 500 chart tells the story. The index has broken below the late-2025 lows and is trading near 6,498. If the weekend headline fails to produce a meaningful bounce on Monday, or if whatever bounce occurs gets sold into within hours rather than days, that's the confirmation signal that Trump's credibility with markets is exhausted and the real moves are starting.
This could be one of the most important inflection points of the year. I'll be watching Monday's open very closely.
One more thing before wrapping it up for the week.
The technical picture in bitcoin is remarkably similar to what we saw in late January.
The shape of the current correction is so similar to what we saw back then that I’m not sure if any description is necessary. We’ve had initial, sharp rebound, then another move higher and a moderate rally that culminated with two tops. I marked the first one with orange arrows and the second one with red arrows. The final tops formed at 38.2% Fibonacci retracements based on the most recent decline.
Now we’re at the breakdown stage. Below both: 50-day moving average (blue slope) and the rising support line.
Why is this important (besides that it makes it very likely that our profits on short positions in bitcoin will increase substantially)?
Because the breakdown in bitcoin and the consolidation after the breakdown was precisely when the precious metals market soared for the very final time before sliding.
This would be in perfect tune with my previous analyses and with what I wrote earlier today.
All in all, it seems that we’re going to get one final move up in stocks and precious metals before they all decline significantly.
As always, I’ll keep my subscribers informed.
I mean it – the situation can, and is likely to – change dynamically. If you’d like to receive updates and get price targets for gold, silver, mining stocks, and other markets, I invite you to join my subscribers. These are the final days of our extreme promo, and the precious metals market is very close to its next turning point, so the timing seems perfect. Join us today.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA