We’re heading into a key daily and weekly close with all three of our favorite markets sitting right at technically sensitive levels.
The dollar is pressing against major resistance, while gold and silver are holding above critical support. This is one of those moments where daily closes matter more than intraday noise and what happens today could set the tone for next week.
Dollar (DX.F)
From today’s perspective, we see that bulls managed to close yesterday’s red downside gap, which is a technical win. However, despite that success, they once again failed to break through the key resistance zone based on the February 20 bearish gap and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
That tells us something important: this level still matters.
Daily indicators have now generated initial sell signals, giving bears another argument. However, in our opinion, sellers can only truly claim control if they manage to close the day below the black support line based on recent lows (which also looks like the lower border of a developing rising wedge).
Nevertheless, the real intrigue shows up on the H4 chart.
From this point of view, we see that two major technical factors stand out:
1 - The dollar is trading inside an orange consolidation. Therefore, directional breakout = next short-term move.
2️ - A potential inverted head & shoulders pattern is emerging. Bullish? Potentially, but without confirmation it means nothing.
Given the significance of nearby resistance, a close above just the neckline isn’t enough. In our view, only a daily close above 98 could activate the bullish scenario based on this formation. If that happens, the minimum upside target sits near 98.45 - right where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement aligns.
But remember - confirmation is everything.
Connecting the dots, if we get:
- A daily close above the key resistance -> bulls regain control.
- A daily close below the black daily support line -> bears take over (in that case, first downside targets would be the February 17 green gap (96.82-97.02) and if that gets closed, the January 30 gap zone (96.14-96.29).
Today’s daily and weekly close will likely define next week’s opening direction.
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Today’s Takeaway
Dollar: watch 98 on the upside & the black daily support line on the downside. No confirmation = no overcommitment.
Gold: (…)
Silver: (…)
Final Thought: the levels are set, the structures are clear and now we wait for confirmation. Let the daily close decide who controls next week.
Stay sharp, stay tactical and have a wonderful weekend!
Anna