Markets are entering a decision phase. The dollar is showing signs of a completed downside structure and potential reversal.
Meanwhile, gold and silver are losing key levels, with bearish momentum accelerating. Let’s take a closer look at the recent changes.
U.S Dollar Index (DX.F)
Let’s start today’s Free Lab Note with the yesterday’s quote:
“(…) the recent decline brought the dollar not only into the above-mentioned gap but also into the previous corrective low - a classic Elliott structure. Therefore, looking closer, the recent drop may represent wave 5… but… it might not be finished yet - there is still room for one more push lower toward the ~99.20 area. (…)”
“(…) H4 indicators are already oversold, which increases the probability of a near-term bounce, but confirmation is key. Therefore, today’s / tomorrow’s session will be decisive (…)”
From today’s point of view, we see that price action followed the script and bears pushed the greenback into one more downswing, hitting 99.22 earlier today. In our opinion, this move likely completed wave 5 of the decline.
Taking all the above into account and combine it with the fact that at the same time, the green support gap held and fresh H4 buy signals from indicators appeared, we believe that yesterday’s reversal scenario remains fully valid:
“(…) If that scenario plays out the next logical move would be a corrective bounce (B / wave 2) targeting at least the 100 zone (psychological + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
However, this is where things will get decided:
· reclaiming 100-> opens the door toward ~100.25 (78.6% Fib)
· rejection below-> confirms continuation lower (…)”
Gold (GC.F) + Silver (SI.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
Key Levels to Watch
Dollar
Resistance: barrier of 100 / 100.25-100.36 (Monday’s red gap)
Support: 99.22-99.43 (bullish gap from March 12)
Gold
Supports: (…)
Resistances: (…)
Silver
Supports: (…)
Resistances: (…)
Today’s Takeaway
Dollar: bullish bias (for now), but confirmation needed.
The 99.20-99.30 zone has now become the key short-term pivot. The recent downswing likely completed a full structure, and with fresh H4 buy signals on the table, bulls may attempt a rebound. A sustained move higher could open the path back toward 100, while a failure to hold above 99.20 would weaken the reversal case and keep the dollar under pressure.
Gold: (…)
Silver: (…)
Final Thought: two different stories are unfolding right now. The dollar is stabilizing after a completed structure, while gold and silver have already triggered downside scenarios from previous Premium Lab Notes. This is where positioning matters.
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Stay sharp, stay tactical and - as always - watch the closes.
Anna