Yes, the AI tech is revolutionary. But this doesn’t mean that the current valuations make sense. The first cracks are already here.
Bitcoin verified its breakdown and is now sliding decisively below $100k. The breakout above the late-2024 high was just invalidated, and this is a huge deal from the psychological (=technical) point of view.
When we go below $75k – to new yearly lows – people will panic.
And if the anti-dollar fails, where will they turn to? Some might turn to gold, but… The history tells us that it’s the USD that’s likely to benefit, and gold is likely to suffer – at least in the medium term.
More importantly, the decline in bitcoin could pop the AI bubble on the stock market. Then it’s 2008 all over again.
The USD Index is currently verifying its yet another breakout above the declining resistance line – it’s now providing support. It’s ready for another rally.
Another reason for the rally in the USD and a decline in stocks?
If this is indeed 2008 all over again, we might not get a prolonged consolidation before the decline in the PMs continues – we would be likely to get a big, sharp decline.
Silver moved to new all-time high this week, but it managed to stay there only for several hours. The invalidation of the breakout is a sell signal.
Yes, there are 100 reasons for silver to soar in the long term, while silver might take off any day – it seems much more likely to me that it will decline first.
Perhaps the upcoming decline in silver will create a handle of the huge cup-and-handle pattern that started in 2011.
If the 2008 is repeated, silver might decline profoundly, but let’s not forget that this decline was what launched white precious metal’s near-500% rally.
On a side note, there’s one specific analogy to 2008 that I realized today. Namely… I launched my first precious-metals-related project (“Sunshine Profits”) in March 2008 – that was when the precious metals topped that year. I have now launched The Silver Engineer brand and I have published a 307-page book on silver, which was an even bigger project in terms of preparation. Just like everyone else, I’m a human being that is impacted by what’s going on around me and – especially – what’s happening on the markets. While I strive to remain unemotional while preparing my analyses, it's quite possible that I was still driven by similar circumstances.
Perhaps my own business decisions are yet another confirmation that the technical (psychological) principles work regardless of the economic environment as ultimately emotions that humans experience given analogous price movements, don’t change.
Of course, I’m not treating the above as a serious reason to expect the precious metals market to decline shortly – rather an addition to an already likely case. Still, if we see a slide here – and it turns out that I managed to publish my silver book exactly at its 2025 top - it will be a very interesting coincidence (if you believe in such things). And it will turn out that me purchasing the Silver2025.com domain and using it for this book (as a backup – the main domain is Silver2026.com) was a form of unexpected foreshadowing.
Finally, if this book seems overwhelming or you don’t have time to read through it all now, I encourage you to check out the “Letters from the Silver Trenches” section – it’s where I asked experts questions on silver and I also solicited more general life/investing wisdom from them. Everyone is always asking the experts about their key specialization, and there’s so much more that those successful people have to say and share.
So, if you’re now curious what the CEO of the Silver Institute would put on the billboard for millions to see, take a look at the Letters from the Silver Trenches section. It won’t spoil book’s ending.
Get the “Silver Rising: 100 Reasons Why Silver Will Soar” book at Silver2026.com
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder
Golden Meadow®