Q&A to yesterday’s analysis.
Today’s free analysis is going to be a bit different than usually. Today’s market analysis is reserved for my subscribers, but I’d like to share the “Letters to the Editor” section that my Gold Trading Alerts also include. These are replies to questions received after posting yesterday’s analysis. Hopefully, you’ll find those additional explanations useful.
Q: PR, the 50% copper tariffs yesterday created massive chaos, but gold still declined. This seems counterintuitive - shouldn't industrial disruption support safe-haven demand?
A: I'm grateful for this excellent question because it perfectly illustrates why the Peak Chaos theory is so powerful for timing major market turns.
You're absolutely right that copper tariffs at 50% represent massive industrial disruption that 'should' drive safe-haven buying. But gold's decline during maximum chaos tells us we've reached the point where negative catalysts are already fully priced in.
This is exactly what I predicted in my Peak Chaos framework - when even the most disruptive news can't lift gold, it signals the emotional support has been exhausted. The market is looking past the chaos toward fundamental realities.
What makes this analysis stronger is combining insights across multiple markets. The copper reversal pattern (matching 2008 and 2022 tops), USD Index breakout, and gold's failure to respond to chaos all point to the same conclusion. Having expertise in industrial metals, currencies, and precious metals simultaneously provides much clearer timing signals than analyzing gold in isolation.
This is why I'm excited about developing systematic approaches that optimize insights across many markets (as covered by multiple experts) - it would have made yesterday's signals even more obvious.
Q: Your February analysis predicted copper tariffs would be 'the final nail in copper's coffin,' and you provided historical examples with steel and aluminum in 2018. How confident are you that this pattern repeats?
A: Thank you for referencing that earlier analysis - I'm grateful when subscribers track the consistency of the framework over time, as it helps validate the approach.
The historical parallels are remarkably strong. In March 2018, U.S. Steel peaked the exact day steel tariffs were announced, then lost almost two-thirds of its value by December. Century Aluminum did the same with aluminum tariffs. This week’s copper action - the spike to new highs followed by immediate reversal - matches those patterns perfectly.
What's particularly compelling is that we now have copper showing the same intraday reversal pattern as its 2008 and 2022 tops. There are no other similar cases in copper's recent history, and both previous instances led to massive declines.
But here's where multi-market analysis becomes crucial: if I were only following copper, I might miss the broader implications for precious metals. The combination of copper topping, USD Index breaking higher, and gold failing to respond to maximum chaos creates a much more complete picture.
This is why systematic approaches that integrate expertise across commodities, currencies, and precious metals can provide superior timing. No single market tells the complete story.
===
Thank you for reading my today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you liked what you read and would like to get more from me – in the premium version of my analysis, I encourage you to subscribe to my Gold Trading Alerts. The first month is available at just $99. Join us today.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief