BTC's price action hints at a near-term bounce, but can it defy the bearish trend ahead?
BTC UPDATE
As mentioned on Friday, we were concerned that price action had already started moving toward our downside targets ahead of schedule. Nevertheless, after touching key support levels, we do expect a near-term bounce.
Market Outlook
We continue to view February and March as very bearish for BTC, with downside targets currently in the 60k region. Before any sustained move lower, we expect a phase of consolidation and potentially a corrective bounce, broadly in line with our bearish outlook on equities.
Because of this setup, we are buyers around the 75k area today, treating any upside as counter-trend within a broader bearish structure.
Key Ranges for the Month Ahead
Monthly Range
Monthly support: 66,000
Monthly resistance: 88,900
Weekly Range
Weekly support: 74,500
Weekly resistance 1: 78,500
Weekly resistance 2: 83,100
Overall, we expect choppy price action and wide ranges in the near term, followed by a second leg lower once the current corrective phase is complete.
Ethereum shows a similar overall outlook to BTC, although we continue to view ETH as structurally weaker.
Price has already reached our weekly chart target at 2,400, one week ahead of schedule, which reinforces our view that additional downside risk remains.
Market Outlook
We do expect a near-term bounce, but this is viewed as corrective only. Within that bounce, we are sellers around the 2,620 area, in line with our broader bearish stance for February and March.
Key Ranges
Weekly Range
Support: 1,740
Resistance: 2,400
Monthly Range
Support: 1,475
Resistance: 2,620
Overall, ETH is expected to underperform BTC, with rallies likely to be sold into as the market works through a broader corrective phase.
