The market is shifting from defense to decision.
The dollar has just completed a successful breakout attempt, gold is stabilizing above key technical levels after reclaiming support, and silver is attempting a recovery, but without full confirmation yet. Today’s price behavior - especially daily closes - will play a critical role in confirming which side is gaining control.
Dollar (DX.F): Breakout Confirmed, But Momentum Is Being Tested
From today’s perspective, bears failed to capitalize on yesterday’s test of the lower boundary of the rising wedge. Not only did they fail to close the day below the formation, but they couldn’t even close a single candle below it.
Bulls quickly took advantage of that failed breakdown attempt and launched a counterattack, pushing price above the upper boundary of the wedge. This breakout opened the door for further upside, with price now approaching last month’s highs and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Today’s modest pullback appears to be a classic verification of the earlier breakout (a technically healthy development). If buyers regain momentum and push higher, the next upside targets include:
- the upper boundary of the rising channel near 97.99
- and potentially the 98.14 area, where the measured move projection of the wedge aligns with the unfilled downside gap from January 23
However, confirmation remains essential. A strong close above the February high would significantly strengthen the bullish outlook. At the same time, H4 indicators are already approaching overbought territory, suggesting that very short-term upside may be more gradual rather than explosive.
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Silver (SI.F): Recovery Attempt Continues, But Resistance Remains in Control
Silver has also staged a recovery attempt, but the structure remains less convincing than gold.
Despite the recent bounce, price is still trading below the very short-term resistance line based on recent highs and below the important 8000 level.
This keeps the very short-term outlook uncertain.
Additionally, indicators such as CCI and Stochastics have already entered overbought territory on the H4 chart. This increases the probability of very short-term sell signals emerging if buyers fail to break above resistance soon.
If bulls cannot reclaim resistance levels and indicators begin turning lower, sellers may regain control and trigger another move toward recent lows. At this stage, silver remains in recovery mode, but without confirmed strength.
Today’s Takeaway
Dollar: the breakout is technically valid. Holding above the wedge breakout zone keeps the bullish scenario intact. A confirmed push above recent highs opens the door toward 98.14.
Gold: (…)
Silver: still below key resistance and vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. A breakout above resistance is needed to confirm strength. Without it, the risk of another corrective move remains elevated.
Stay sharp, stay tactical.
Anna