The new week begins with a clear shift in momentum across the major instruments we track.
After last week’s rally pushed the U.S. dollar above the psychological 100 level, the market is now facing its first meaningful corrective move. At the same time, precious metals are entering a critical moment: gold is testing the 5000 psychological support, while silver is once again flirting with the 8000 level.
In other words, we’re entering a technical environment where today’s closing levels may set the tone for the rest of the week.
U.S. Dollar (DX.F)
Let’s start today’s Lab Note with the Friday’s quote:
“(…) So, what comes next?
Daily indicators are now showing clear negative divergences, and when we combine them with the next important resistance zone - November highs together with the strong bearish engulfing pattern from May 29, 2025 - it suggests that the room for further upside may be somewhat limited.
Nevertheless, from an Elliott Wave perspective, one more upswing toward approximately 100.48 should not surprise us before the market potentially starts cooling down. (…)”
Looking at the charts today, we see that Friday’s session played out almost perfectly in line with our bullish scenario.
Buyers pushed the dollar slightly above our upside target, with Friday’s high forming at 100.53. Additionally, with that move, the dollar managed to close the session slightly above the November highs and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension visible on the H4 chart.
However, this key resistance zone combined with the Elliott Wave structure we mentioned on Friday triggered a reversal, exactly as expected.
As a result, today’s Asian session opened with a bearish gap (100.11-100.36) that quickly pushed the dollar back below the psychological 100 level.
Once that level was lost, additional sellers stepped in and drove the dollar below 99.60. At the same time, H4 indicators generated fresh sell signals, suggesting that the correction may not be over yet.
So, what comes next?
In our view, the first downside target for sellers is the support zone created by Thursday’s bullish gap (99.22-99.43). Only a full closure of that gap would likely open the door for further downside - especially if the daily CCI and Stochastics join RSI in generating sell signals.
However, if buyers step in around that support zone, the most likely scenario would be a move back above 100 and a renewed attempt to close today’s Asian bearish gap.
If sellers remain in control, the next key battlefield will likely appear near the lower boundary of the rising channel visible on H4, where the next directional decision could emerge.
Gold (GC.F) + Silver (SI.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
And the timing is not random: we’re sitting at technical zones that can shape the entire week ahead.
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Today’s Takeaway
Right now the market is approaching several technical decision points. That means patience and discipline are especially important. Here are the key levels and scenarios worth watching today.
U.S. Dollar: the dollar has started a corrective move after reaching resistance near 100.50.
Key levels to watch:
- today’s bearish gap (100.11-100.36)
- 100 - psychological resistance / potential recovery trigger
- 99.22-99.43 -> key support zone based on Thursday’s bullish gap
If buyers defend that support zone, the dollar could reclaim 100 and attempt to close today’s bearish gap. If sellers close that gap and push below support, the correction could deepen toward the lower boundary of the H4 channel.
Gold: the yellow metal is currently facing a critical battle around the 5000 level.
Key levels to watch: (…)
Silver: the white metal is once again testing the 8000 level, which has acted as a major battleground in recent sessions.
Key levels to watch: (…)
In short: the dollar is correcting after reaching a major resistance zone, while gold and silver are testing their most important support levels. Today’s closing prices may determine whether metals stabilize or whether the correction accelerates into the rest of the week.
Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand.
Anna