Not much has changed… and that in itself is the story.
The dollar still struggles to regain strength, while gold and silver continue to hold near key resistance zones. That tells us one thing: the market hasn’t made a decision yet, but the pressure is building, and a bigger move is getting closer.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)
At first glance, nothing new, but that’s exactly the problem.
Despite a slightly higher open during the Asian session, bulls once again failed to break above Tuesday’s highs (98.15/98.16). That hesitation was quickly met with selling pressure, pushing the dollar back lower.
And that says a lot.
This kind of price action highlights clear weakness on the buyers’ side and, more importantly, a lack of renewed confidence in the U.S. currency. On top of that, today’s small bullish gap has already been partially filled, which increases the risk of further downside - especially if the day closes below yesterday’s close and the 98 level.
If that happens, the next step becomes straightforward.
A retest of the nearest support zone at 97.56-97.82 (still tied to the open March 2nd gap) becomes the base case. And if that area fails to hold, the door opens toward deeper support levels at 97.36 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and 96.82-97.00 (February 17 gap).
Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 97.56-97.82 / 97.36 / 96.82-97.00
Resistances: 98.15-98.16 / 98.00
Gold (GC.F) & Silver (SI.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
Now it’s time to zoom out. Because sometimes the clearest signal doesn’t come from the index… but from how the market positions against it. And right now, across major FX pairs, we’re starting to see a consistent pattern: pressure on the dollar is quietly building.
EUR/USD
This is where the shift becomes visible.
After a brief consolidation just below a major resistance zone - built around the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.1823 and the March 2 gap (1.1767-1.1816) - bulls finally stepped in and pushed the pair higher.
We don’t have a confirmed daily close above that zone yet, but when you combine this move with the broader dollar weakness we discussed earlier, the odds of continuation are clearly improving.
If buyers manage to hold above the broken resistance into the close - and especially into the weekly close - the next target comes into focus at 1.1914-1.1937, where February highs align with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
What would weaken this scenario?
A daily close back below the reclaimed zone at 1.1823-1.1828.
Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 1.1823-1.1828 / 1.1756
Resistances: 1.1914-1.1937
GBP/USD
Sterling is telling a very similar story - just with a slightly cleaner structure.
Price continues to trade within an orange consolidation right below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which typically acts as a pressure zone before expansion.
And that matters because breakouts from this type of structure often carry momentum - especially when aligned with broader dollar weakness.
If buyers manage to close the day above that Fibonacci level, the path will likely open toward 1.3678, and potentially even 1.3698-1.3711 in the coming sessions.
The invalidation point is clean - a daily close below the lower boundary of the consolidation at 1.3503 would significantly weaken the bullish case.
Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 1.3503
Resistances: 1.3678 / 1.3698-1.3711
USD/JPY & USD/CAD & USD/CHF & AUD/USD → these sections are also reserved for Premium readers today.
Today’s Takeaway
Dollar
Bullish scenario: as long as buyers reclaim and hold above 98.15-98.16, a recovery attempt may start to build.
Bearish scenario: failure to regain momentum and a daily close below 98 will likely trigger renewed pressure toward 97.56-97.82 and potentially lower levels.
Key takeaway: this is not strength - it’s hesitation. And hesitation near resistance usually resolves lower.
Gold
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Silver
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EUR/USD
Bullish scenario: holding above 1.1823-1.1828 supports continuation toward 1.1914-1.1937.
Bearish scenario: a daily close back below that zone would weaken the breakout and delay further upside.
Key takeaway: this is a breakout attempt - not confirmation yet.
GBP/USD
Bullish scenario: a close above 61.8% Fibonacci opens the path toward 1.3678 and higher.
Bearish scenario: a break below 1.3503 invalidates the structure and shifts pressure lower.
Key takeaway: compression near resistance often leads to expansion - direction depends on the close.
USD/JPY
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USD/CAD
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USD/CHF
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AUD/USD
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Final Thought: across the FX board, the message is getting clearer. Not loud, not everywhere confirmed but consistent.
Stay sharp, stay tactical and have a wonderful weekend!
Anna