[GoldenMeadow.eu and GoldPriceForecast.com EXCLUSIVE]
For weeks, the pattern has not wavered. Oil climbs on the war, and the metals fall, because a wider conflict means more inflation, a firmer Federal Reserve, higher yields, and a stronger dollar. Gold has treated every war headline as a reason to drop rather than a reason to rise. I have written that paragraph so many times it has started to feel like a law.
Today it did not hold. Gold, silver, copper, and oil are all higher at once, with silver out in front by more than 3%. For the first time in this entire decline, the metals are rising alongside oil instead of falling underneath it. That is a different picture, and I am not going to pretend it is the same one.
Let me be clear about what this most likely is, before I get to why I am watching it closely anyway. The odds still favor a technical rebound. The sector was stretched to the downside. Gold spent last week grinding at nine-month lows around $4,000, silver fell to its weakest since December, and a market that oversold does not need a reason to bounce. It just needs sellers to pause.
Technically, it’s a short-term breakout, which seems bullish until you factor in the fact that we saw a small breakout also in May and it was not the start of a new rally.
Silver leading the way up fits that, and it fits something more specific I described yesterday: silver tends to outrun gold on an immediate-term basis in the final stage of a move, right before the sector turns, and it has a habit of printing fake breakouts that pull buyers in just ahead of the roll-over. So, a silver-led pop off a beaten-down level, on a day the dollar has not moved, is exactly what the last gasp of a decline tends to look like.
One swallow does not make a summer.
Breakout in silver? Yes.
Did we see a breakout in silver also in mid-June that was followed by a huge decline? Also yes.
Here is why I am watching it anyway, and watching it carefully. The reason the metals rose with oil today is that the oil story stopped being a single-chokepoint story. Iran hit another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, on the tenth straight night of American strikes, and transit through the Strait has effectively stopped. What is new is the second front. The Houthis in Yemen declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, which puts roughly 2.5 million barrels a day at risk through the Red Sea, the very route the market was counting on with the Strait shut. Both of the Gulf's outlets are now under threat at the same time, and analysts are warning of a serious move higher in crude. That is no longer a disruption the market can wave off. It is the early shape of a genuine supply shock.
And a genuine supply shock is the one thing that has always sat at the edge of my case as the scenario that could turn it. For most of this year, more oil has meant a harder Fed and a lower gold price, and it still does. But if the shock grows large enough and lasts long enough, it stops being ordinary inflation the Fed can lean against and becomes the kind of stagflation that sent gold soaring in the 1970s, with a supply squeeze and a slowing economy at once. The metals rising together with oil is what the first hours of that shift would look like. I am not saying that is what today is. I am saying it is the first day it has been on the table at all, and I would be doing you a disservice to dismiss it.
The USD Index is up once again, and the technical position looks excellent. It will look even better once the USDX breaks above its flag pattern, but it’s already good now:
- The breakout above the late-2025 and early-2026 highs held. What used to be resistance, now proved to be support – more than once.
- The breakdown below the rising support line was invalidated.
Meanwhile, the situation on the general stock market is tense.
The S&P 500 closed below 7,500 yesterday, and it’s making another attempt to move higher today. If it fails decisively, this could be the beginning of a powerful slide.
In fact, today’s weird strength in the precious metals market could be a symptom of a broad top in multiple markets. When laggards suddenly perform well, it suggests trouble, as it implies that the investment public entered the market. And – believe it or not – the precious metals sector is the short-term laggard. Yes, the market had a spectacular run-up in 2025, but it’s been declining for months now.
[The analysis continues, and it includes my detailed and updated take on the near- and medium-term targets for gold, silver, and mining stocks, as well as a clear signal that could temporarily invalidate the bearish case.]
As always, I will keep my subscribers informed.
Thank you for reading my today’s free, Gold-Trading-Alert-based analysis.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA