Gold is up today, and miners are somewhat up as well while silver and platinum not so much. What does it change?
Pretty much nothing.
On Friday, I described the way in which the current situation was similar to what we saw in 2008 – we saw the third subsequent nonfarm payroll report that spelt trouble for the economy. Back in 2008, this meant something special for gold.
Namely, a quick rally followed and then a big, 30% decline.
Of course, that was a 30% decline only in gold – the slides in silver, miners, copper, and FCX were not so small – they were extreme.
What did gold do after last week’s disappointing nonfarm payroll report?
Gold moved higher initially – the same kind of reaction that we saw in 2008.
The rising resistance line that stopped the early-August top is at hand.
Mining stocks moved higher but they are in their topping area – at their previous high and at their rising resistance line (approximately). All this while the rally is just as big it was during previous big rallies. It looks like time for this rally to end – especially that the precious metals sector tends to top right or shortly after the U.S. Labor Day.
Meanwhile, silver is moving in tune with this previous post-breakout rallies.
Platinum is doing nothing – it tried to move higher earlier today, but it already gave away almost all of its intraday gains.
The USD Index is trying to break lower here.
It tried doing that on Friday, but ultimately ended the day above the April low and above its declining support line that was broken earlier this month.
Today, the USD Index moved below both, but very insignificantly so. Will this move be confirmed? All the attempts that we saw since early August failed – the USD Index always moved back up.
Perhaps today’s attempt to move lower is the final one – that would fit the extremely overbought picture in the precious metals.
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On a side note, you probably received an invitation from Golden Meadow® about this week’s webinar with Inna Rosputnia (the author of the Quant Precision newsletter, one of the services included in the Diamond Package), but just in case you haven’t seen it, I would like to invite you to it. I spoke with Inna, and she agreed to discuss gold, silver, GDX and GDXJ during the webinar. Inna will also analyze markets on demand (based on requests), and she’ll explain how she’s combining AI and intuition while making investment decisions. I have to say that I’m personally intrigued, and I encourage you to reserve your spot today.
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Also, I would like to thank you for the overwhelmingly positive response that I received after posting my Friday’s note on my past and current performance. Some people that had requested such a message are quiet for now, but many others were vocal – all messages that we received through various channels were positive. I’ll quote some of them below:
- PR, I respect you for owning up to the poor outcome, based on your research, that many of us have experienced in the past, and yes I agree that it is us, your followers, that make the final decision; (…) I still read your daily update, the freebie; hope you continue it!! what’s the expression, heads up, elbows down!! keep on trucking
- I followed your 'Downward' advice in 2016 and almost got wiped out. However I know your heart is in the right place and enjoy reading your emails. Kindest regards
- PR, you are a good and fair analyst despite the unjust criticism you receive. Hang in there, step back, and keep on doing what you are doing! I respect you as a person and your analysis!
I even received a longer – and very supportive – letter from someone extremely experienced with the markets (with 52 – yes – years of experience in options trading), and I’m waiting for this person’s confirmation that I can quote the letter publicly.
Thank you for your support once again. And remember – if you’d like to check out our best – the Diamond Package – it can do so conveniently with our 14-day trial.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief