We’re in a market that’s still digesting recent downside momentum while quietly flashing early signs of exhaustion.
Sellers have been in control, but we’re starting to see the first cracks in that dominance. This is where things get interesting… because transitions don’t announce themselves loudly - they whisper first.
Gold (GC.F)
Let’s open today’s Lab Note by revisiting our April 28 scenario:
“(…) today’s break below the lower boundary of the orange consolidation, followed by a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
(…) if bears manage to hold this position into the close, we are no longer talking only about a temporary dip below a range… we are talking about a confirmed close below the consolidation, and at the same time, the closure of the key April 8 bullish support gap (in other words, bulls would lose one of their most important technical allies).
If that happens, (…) , the most probable next destination would be the 4516 area in the coming session(s). (…)”
From today’s perspective, we see it played out clean. The market followed the bearish plan, printing a new local low at 4510 during yesterday’s session and completing our downside target (if you were in that trade - congratulations!).
The recent price action tells a pretty clean story… last week’s move higher? It was only an attempt to verify that earlier breakdown below 4686 - exactly what we talked about on Thursday - and the market confirmed it perfectly. This is one of those moments that really sharpens your price action reading: not every bounce means a reversal. Sometimes it’s just the market proving it’s still weak.
On top of that, yesterday we got a bearish island reversal, and right now, it’s working in favor of the bears. As long as that structure holds, it creates a nearby resistance zone between 4644 and 4673. That’s the area where sellers are most likely to step back in and defend their ground.
So… do bulls have anything going for them?
Actually… yes.
We’re starting to see the first clear bullish divergences showing up on CCI and Stochastics. Now, to be clear - this doesn’t flip the trend (yet) and the market is still in a very short-term downtrend. But they are a warning sign for shorts, which tell us that bearish momentum is slowing down.
And that’s your cue to pay attention.
Right now, the key area to watch is the 4500-4510 support zone. How price behaves there matters a lot. But even more important?
The breakout/breakdown from the current consolidation we can see on the 4H chart.
Why?
Because that’s the moment where the market stops “thinking”… and starts making its next move.
- Bullish scenario:
If buyers manage to break above 4595, the path opens toward the previously mentioned resistance zone - roughly around 4680. But getting there is one thing… winning the battle in that area is a completely different story. That’s where the real test begins: can buyers actually invalidate the island reversal and the earlier breakdown under 4686? In our opinion, only then can we start talking about a shift in the short-term narrative. - Bearish scenario:
If buyers fail? Then the script stays simple - we’ll likely see a re-test of yesterday’s low (and the lower line of the mentioned consolidation) or even a test of the next support zone around 4500-4510. However, in our opinion, only a daily close below 4500 can open the road to the next support area (4400-4416).
Having said that, let’s zoom out the chart and examine the weekly perspective.
Why?
Because while everyone is watching intraday moves… the real decision point might be sitting just below…
Around 4445-4450, we have a long-term support line (based on the January and August 2025 lows, reinforced by the April bottom), and here’s the key insight - despite March’s dip - it was NOT cleanly broken, which means one thing: the broader trends are still intact.
In other words, this support line is the battlefield for the coming weeks.
Quick heads-up: if you’re watching Silver as well, I went a step further in today’s analysis for my Premium readers and broke it down in detail, including the levels that could define the next move. If you don’t want to miss it while it’s being built - not after it’s already happened - you can test Premium Lab Notes for 7 days for free here:
👉 Premium Access: Anna’s Trading Lab
Respect the levels, avoid the noise, and let the market come to you.
Anna