This time, the gold price forecast is not as much about predicting gold prices, as it is about realizing what’s going on in the USD Index.
The Fed cut rates. Again. The USD Index rallied. Also, again.
This doesn’t make sense when taken at face value as lower rates mean lower motivation for anyone to hold U.S. dollars. However, some might view it as a bullish sign for the U.S. as a whole, and some might be reacting in the classic “act-on-rumor-reverse-on-fact” pattern. The Fed’s decision to cut rates again was widely expected, so it was “in the price” for some time now.
It's also following a specific pattern that started last month.
Namely, the USD Index rallied right after the interest rate decision. Last time it was most likely the yearly bottom. This time, it might be the start of the huge upleg that everyone will finally notice.
That’s what the problem has been so far. Even though the USD Index formed its initial bottom in mid-April, it looked like it kept on declining for many months. Technically, it was true, as we saw new lows, but in practice, those moves lower were insignificant.
This perception of USD’s weakness was one of the factors that contributed to and allowed the precious metals market to move so high in recent months.
I’ve been writing about this for some time now – when the USD Index finally rallies in a way that will make it clear for everyone that the tide has turned and that we’re in an at least medium-term rally, the precious metals market will slide.
The slide in the latter has already begun as the bullishness reached so extreme levels that it was not possible for the rallies to continue. And now, when the USD Index finally starts to rally meaningfully, the factor that was previously missing will likely add fuel to the bearish fire that’s already present in the precious metals sector.
It seems to me that USD’s decisive comeback above 100 would be enough not just to raise eyebrows, but to turn heads. And PMs and miners would react.
Right now, the USD Index is trading at about 99.4 and it just broke above to new monthly high.
All declining resistance lines were already taken out. The next resistance is the 100 level, after which the rally is likely to accelerate. It looks like these are the final days before the really big price moves start.
Gold Price Prediction for November 2025
So… Why haven’t gold prices declined today?
It’s simple – gold is still taking its breather after a powerful short-term decline.
Gold price and silver price are not reacting to the USD Index’s breakout yet, which is in tune with what I’ve been writing – the rally in the USD Index is not believable yet – at least that’s what almost everyone thinks.
Also, both precious metals declined quite substantially in the last two weeks, so taking a breather here is natural. It doesn’t change the fact that the medium-term rally is almost certainly over and that the yearly tops have been formed. It seems that taking profits from the long-term investments and from half of the insurance capital (in gold and silver) when gold was at about $4,150 and silver was above $50 was a great idea.
Please note how silver ended its correction at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level – a classic way for a rebound to materialize.
Miners have moved up and then down once again recently, in a way that’s very similar to what we saw before previous declines. There’s nothing bullish about that.
Also, do you know what other market is likely to suffer in a huge way when the USD Index soars?
Bitcoin.
The “new gold” already broke below its rising support line and – unlike earlier this year – this breakdown was already verified. The most recent upswing to new highs might have looked encouraging, but it was actually a verification of the breakdown. The move to new highs was invalidated, anyway.
How low will the bitcoin fall? Ultimately, I expect it to move much lower, well below $50k. But for now, I think that $70k will provide interim support – that’s where we saw price extremes in 2021 and a few times in 2024.
Summing up, while it’s not 100% clear what price levels gold will reach in November and where exactly it will bottom, it is 100% clear to me that the forecasting gold prices at lower levels in November is fully justified. When gold price declines, the outlook will become clearer, and I will provide my subscribers with clear downside targets (for gold, silver, and mining stocks) and in case of a rebound, I’ll also discuss how high the precious metals market can go and how long will this correction take place. For now, it looks like the next big move will be to the downside.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder
Golden Meadow®