The USD/YEN breakout is a fact and one that’s being confirmed. Gold now forms lower intraday highs. What’s next?
No surprise here – gold, silver, and miners appear to have topped, so the next move is likely to be to the downside, just as I explained it in my previous analyses.
Gold moved back and forth yesterday but ultimately ended the day lower. That was the biggest daily decline in a few weeks, and given today’s lack of rally, it’s also the longest one.
Of course, it’s just a small move lower so far, but even big things have small beginnings. The key thing that we can say about the above chart is that “things have changed”. The fact that we saw another lower daily intraday high today also confirms that.
We took profits from the recent long position in gold when gold rallied to $2,342 (but gold then moved higher before the end of the day, so the odds are that you took profits at even higher gold price), and three days ago I wrote the following:
„In Friday’s second intraday Gold Trading Alert, I wrote the following:
If I had to consider a trading position in gold and I was not able to short junior miners, I would be opening a short position in it if gold moved above $2,370.
That’s what just happened, so if one wants to open a short position in gold, I think it’s now justified”
For now, it’s quite clear that gold has indeed topped in the upper part of my target area (okay, it moved a few dollars above it, but not more than that) and that the huge downswing has already begun. Of course, since it’s just started, it’s not big yet. Which means that the trading opportunity is still here.
Let’s take a look at silver.
On April 4, I wrote the following:
How high can silver go before it really tops here?
Tough to say. Since the point is about the outperformance, it could even be the case that silver soars to $30, but I’d say $29 is more likely at the final resistance for the white metal. It doesn’t have to rally, though – silver might stop at $27.5 – its 2022 high. The upside target in gold is much more predictable than the one for silver, which is why I’m writing about being long gold.
Silver appears to have topped at $28.66 – almost right in the middle of the prices that I wrote above as the possible targets ($27.5 and $30) and quite close to the $29 that I mentioned as the more likely final resistance.
Since silver’s breakout might be a reason for concern, and we have multiple new subscribers aboard, I’d like to quote what I wrote on that topic previously:
That [a breakout] would be bullish for many markets, but not for silver. The white metal is known for fake breakouts and for outperformance of gold right at the tops or just before them.
Since the breakout is above a resistance line of THIS magnitude, the top that is likely to follow will also most likely be profound.
Please note that the 2021 top also formed when silver was after a breakout (above the declining blue line) and it was when silver soared on strong volume, when everyone and their brother got interested in buying it. I wrote that silver was indeed likely to soar, but not at that time.
Again, at this time, silver’s breakout is very likely to be a fake-out.
The trade that I had featured previously is over, and if you managed to profit from it – congratulations.
And if you’re interested in the NEXT big (and likely quick) trade in gold / mining stocks, I have good news for you – this move is just getting started, and the opportunity is still here.
In other news, I’m lowering the initial price for my Gold Trading Alerts to just $1 (yes, a single dollar) for the first week of subscription. Even if you don’t care about the rest - just these trade details are more than worth it.
Sign up now and get details of this exciting position in gold for just $1.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief