Hello traders, I hope you had a great weekend! Let's talk about what's happening in the stock market.
Last Friday, the stock markets improved a bit, mainly because there were no major economic data releases. It seems like there's a small positive trend before a significant event this week – the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). This data is crucial because it could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on economic policies.
As we move forward, the market might slow down in the next few sessions, waiting for the inflation data. There's some speculation that inflation won't decrease, especially due to the higher energy prices we've been seeing. This could keep the US Dollar (USD) on an upward trajectory.
If we take a look at the relationship between Crude oil and US CPI on a chart, you'll notice a strong correlation, with US CPI lagging behind because it's reported with a delay. However, it's worth noting that crude oil often hits its bottom or peak before CPI does. So, my assumption is that inflation could rise a bit, given the recent strong rebound in crude oil prices.
Higher energy prices are one of the reasons why the US Dollar Index (DXY) is also performing well. Speculators believe that the Federal Reserve should increase interest rates further to control inflation.
Speaking of DXY, it's showing ongoing strength, but it's approaching a significant resistance level between 105 and 106. From a technical perspective, this is an ideal point for a reversal. Interestingly, this reversal might happen even if the US CPI data turns out to be higher than expected. This could follow the pattern of "buy the rumor, sell the news." Keep in mind that DXY has already gained nearly 6% from its summer low, suggesting that market expectations for more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are already factored in.
Stay tuned for further updates, and trade wisely.
Grega