The precious metals market dipped a bit today and the USD Index rallied, but I stand by my yesterday’s analysis:
Profitable Bloodbath - Change in Positions.
A corrective rally (lasting between a few days and two weeks) in the precious metals market is likely in my view, and in this free article, I’ll explain one of the reasons.
Please take a look at the below chart featuring the USD Index.
The vertical, dashed lines represent Fed’s interest rate decision days. There are two things that stand out:
- After the rate decision, the USD Index tends to move sharply. Sometimes up, sometimes down, but those reactive moves are similar in terms of time. They usually take between 5 and 9 trading days, with 5-6 being most frequent and 3 days being a local outlier based on the lack of clarity on what move should be measured.
- We usually see reversals after the rate decision – in particular when USD is after a bigger short-term move. We saw that in late July - early August 2025 and in late October – early November.
Based on point 2, it’s likely that we’d see a short-term decline here.
Based on point 1, it’s likely that we’d see it last 1-2 weeks.
There’s something else on top of that. Namely, the USD Index tends to reverse its course close or right at the turn of the month. The turn of the month is 1.5 weeks away, which perfectly fits the post-Fed-rate-hike tendency.
This means that the precious metals market quite likely has about 1.5 weeks to rally. Miners could rally faster initially than metals and also top earlier – that’s how they tend to perform in general.
This is what’s most likely in my view at the moment of posting this analysis. I’ll keep my subscribers informed (also intraday, when needed) and I’ll let them know when the next key trading opportunity takes place. They also know my upside targets for gold, silver, and mining stocks. I invite you to join them, not just because getting the end of this rally right is so critical, but also because my Gold Trading Alerts are currently available to you at a VERY preferred price – check it out, you’ll like it.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA