Junior Miners: That’s not the End – That’s the Beginning
Another day, another increase in profits – nice, right? The best part is that it’s most likely just the beginning!
Remember when I wrote about the tiny breakout in the GDXJ that we saw last Friday? It was barely visible, and yet it was the thing that triggered the substantial post-U.S.-Labor-Day slide.
We just saw something similar with regard to the previous lows.
The GDXJ just closed below the late-August low. It’s more visible once we zoom in.
It was not just an intraday move below the late-August low, but it was actually a daily close below those levels. While this doesn’t make the breakdown confirmed on its own, it does indicate that something might be up (or more precisely in this case: down).
Earlier this week, the slide materialized immediately after such a tiny breakdown happened, so the implications are already bearish.
Interestingly, from the daily point of view (the above chart is based on the daily candlesticks), we saw a verification of the move below the rising blue support line. The GDXJ moved back to this line and then it declined once again.
This means that it’s now ready to move lower. Probably MUCH lower. Once junior miners move below their 2023 lows – and that move seems to be just around the corner – they are likely to truly plunge.
There is no significant support all the way down to the $26 - $28 area. Just as the move up from those levels was fast, the same is likely to be the case for the move lower.
The difficult part of making money on this move lower might be in not getting out too early. People have a tendency to let losing positions grow, while cutting the winners too early. Please keep the above note about support levels in mind, as the GDXJ slides to new yearly lows. It’s really likely to slide substantially before correcting in a meaningful manner.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA