Asset: GC.F (Gold Futures)
Bias: Bearish
Watch Zones: 4120-4160 (resistance), 4035-4050 (pullback targets)
Today’s Game Plan: Monitor rebound potential vs. wedge retest – don’t chase, wait for confirmation
Daily Chart View
Gold’s most recent rally ended with a spike in volatility near the 261.8% Fibonacci extension – a level that rarely acts randomly. What followed was a cluster of indecisive candles that suggested one thing: buyer’s fatigue.
And not just that…
- Two clear bearish engulfing patterns formed at the top
- Two open downside price gaps are still visible
- Two indicators, supporting gold bears
Despite these factors, the price is still trading above a rising triangle support line all the above suggests that sellers are quietly regaining control.
Important takeaway: the short-term uptrend hasn’t been broken, but it seems that bulls are walking on thin ice. If they don’t step up soon, another pullback is very likely.
H4 Timeframe: Resistance Holding Firm
In short: the bearish case sharpens here.
Gold ran straight into the 4120-4160 resistance zone created by:
- previous swing lows
- two overlapping Fibonacci retracement levels (50% & 61.8%)
That’s when sellers took their shot.
- The Stochastic Oscillator hit overbought area and flipped
- The CCI issued a sell signal
- A false breakout above 4100 was invalidated quickly
Takeaway: the very short-term bulls tried and failed. The sellers have the momentum edge for now.
H1 Timeframe: A Trap and a Drop
In short: things got fast and messy here:
- A rising wedge was building and then snapped
- Price broke below the wedge lower line, triggering a sharp drop
- That drop invalidated the breakout above the level of 4100 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, catching breakout buyers off guard
Sellers got stopped (for now) near the green support zone and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, but the indicators haven’t turned bullish.
Takeaway: a very short-term bounce? Maybe. Sustainable bullish momentum? Not yet.
Final Word
Everything visible today leans bearish. Unless the bulls reclaim lost ground, the path leads lower. The next move could define the week.
More soon,
Anna
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