With U.S. markets on pause, gold, silver, and the USDX are quietly lining up for their next big move.
The setup?
We’re at a fascinating intersection: key breakouts are being tested, gaps are either holding or fading, and bearish vs. bullish momentum is balancing on razor-thin levels of confirmation.
And with tomorrow marking the final trading session of the week and the month it seems that today’s candles close might shape not just Friday’s playbook… but the narrative heading into December.
Let’s zoom in.
Looking at the USD Index, we see that the index closed below the lower border of the green rising wedge for the second session in a row. This time, however, the bulls failed to reclaim it as they did in the middle of the month.
Instead of an invalidation of the breakdown, we got a fresh bearish continuation, followed by a modest down gap at today's open. Buyers attempted to close that gap intraday, but the price action left a long upper wick and for now, the gap stays open.
CCI and Stochastics remain in sell mode with no clear reversal signal yet.
My takeaway: as long as bulls fail to erase the gap, yesterday’s downside targets from the H4 timeframe remain valid with potential for further slide.
The most important development in yesterday’s session? A clean daily close above two key resistance levels:
- the upper border of the green triangle
- the upper line of the bearish gap zone (marked in red)
This double breakout is significant - not only does it signal strong bullish momentum, but it also neutralizes the bearish implications of the earlier gap, shifting the technical bias back to the upside.
Earlier today, the price slightly retraced, testing the lower area of yesterday’s gap and flirting with the upper line of the triangle again. Is this a verification of yesterday’s breakouts?
Yup, it looks that way at the moment of writing these words, but in my opinion, gold bulls need to do one more thing to confirm their strength - close the day above 4200. If that happens, the path toward the 4230-4250 zone will be open.
My takeaway: gold just made a bold statement, but it's the follow-through that matters now. If bulls reclaim 4200 again by today's close, it’ll be a powerful confirmation that yesterday’s breakout was real.
From this perspective, we see that despite yesterday’s sharp move to the north, silver bulls failed to close the red bearish gap, leaving that zone still technically active.
However, a breakout above the Nov. 19 high and a fresh Stochastic buy signal kept bullish sentiment alive, and today’s minor bullish gap at the open helped confirm that tone. Price increased above the top of the gap zone, hitting 5369.50 intraday, but the bulls didn’t manage to retest the previous high.
So… is the move losing steam?
Not necessarily. If bulls can hold 5292-5300 (and ideally close the gap above 5317), the probability of a renewed attack toward the recent highs (or even the upper border of the green wedge) will increase. But failure to hold here would open the door to a pullback with 5200–5220 as the first key support zone to watch.
My takeaway: silver has momentum, but it’s bumping into serious resistance. The battle for the gap zone isn’t just symbolic - it’s the gatekeeper to the next leg up. The bulls still have a chance, but they need a strong finish today.
Summing up, all three charts are converging toward critical inflection zones, with gaps playing a starring role. In my opinion, what happens at tomorrow’s close may shape not just the weekly… but the monthly narrative as well.
Tomorrow, we’ll also take our first glance at the U.S. indices - just the daily charts, just enough to spot the pressure building. Something’s shifting beneath the surface.
And next week? We’ll open the Lab for a full dissection. If you’re tracking moves before they hit the headlines - you’ll want to be there.
Another dot connected. Another trail unfolding. See you on the next chart.
Anna
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