With key levels converging into the session close, the next decisive move may be just hours away.
After a week of intense market activity and deep dives, today’s note is brief - just a focused snapshot of where we are on the key charts: the U.S. dollar, gold, and silver (and yes - U.S. indices are still on the table for later today).
Let’s get straight to it.
The USD Index
From the daily perspective, we see that yesterday’s close right at the upper edge of the bearish gap triggered today’s continuation to the upside, however, the price still remains below the previously broken lower border of the green wedge, which means that the structure is still intact. Therefore, in my opinion, as long as there is no invalidation, all upswings could be nothing more than a verification of the earlier breakdown.
Looking at the H1 chart, we see that the bounce continues within the green rising channel, which resulted in a breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci level. However, bulls are still below the critical resistance area around 99.84–99.87 created by previous local highs, the 50% retracement, the black declining resistance line (based on previous highs, which successfully stopped buyers earlier this week), and the upper line of the mentioned green channel.
All indicators are clearly overbought and hint at an incoming pullback - especially if bulls fail to break above the mentioned resistance zone.
My quick takeaway: bulls are pushing, but they’re not out of the woods. A rejection in the 99.84–99.87 area could flip the momentum fast. This zone remains the intraday battlefront.
Gold
Looking at the daily chart, we see that the price remains above the broken triangle and the red bearish gap. Additionally, a return above the psychological 4200 level is currently reinforcing yesterday’s bullish scenario. In other words, the resistance zone around 4230–4250 is still in play - especially if the U.S. dollar shows weakness later today.
My quick takeaway: as long as gold stays above 4200 and the greenback doesn’t break out, bulls remain in control. The battle for 4250 is still on.
Silver
From the daily perspective, we see that silver bulls pushed the price above the red bearish gap, which is a strong positive sign. However, in my opinion, today’s close is the key. If buyers can defend earlier gains into the session close, momentum could accelerate.
In this case, we could see an attack not only on the recent peak, but also an increase to around 5460 (in this area, the size of the upside move matches the height of the red declining wedge marked on the H4 below).
My quick takeaway: silver’s breakout looks promising, but confirmation matters. Watch today’s close - that’s the make-or-break signal.
Summing up, today’s session could set the tone for next week. The USD Index is under watch - it's trying to recover, but resistance is close. If the U.S. currency weakens again, gold and silver may not wait for an invitation to push higher.
Key Levels to Watch:
- the USD Index: 99.84–99.87
- gold: 4230–4250
- silver: daily close & breakout continuation
Let’s stay sharp into the close - the real signal may come in the final hours.
Anna
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