After months of steady grind higher, US indices finally corrected their earlier rally over the past month.
Price dipped, fear flickered, and suddenly, the question shifted from “How high can we go?” to “Is the trend over?”
S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow remain within larger trend structures. Key Fibonacci levels still hold. And with momentum starting to curl back up on the daily charts… something might be building again.
But here’s the real puzzle:
Was November’s correction just a breather or… the first crack in a bigger move?
Let’s dissect the daily setups and see what the charts reveal.
S&P 500 E-Mini (ES.F)
After the short‑term correction that began at the end of October, sellers failed to push the market deeper. The green support zone (created by the 61.8% Fib retracement, the late‑August highs, and the mid-October local lows) acted as a firm barrier and halted the downside pressure.
Yes, bears did manage to drive the price briefly below the short-term rising green channel, but the breakdown was extremely short‑lived. Buyers stepped back in as soon as indicators flashed fresh buy signals, triggering an invalidation of the tiny breakdown under the lower border of the very short‑term red declining channel.
That bullish shift was immediately reflected in the next session: ES.F opened with a strong upside gap, attracting even more buyers and pulling the price right back into the green rising channel (invalidating the earlier breakdown). The follow‑through continued on Wednesday with an attack on the upper border of the red declining channel.
And today?
ES.F is trading above that red channel. If buyers can secure a daily close above it and defend this breakout on Monday, further improvement toward the mid‑November swing high (or even the October peak) will become a highly realistic scenario. Unless bears find meaningful technical ammunition on the lower timeframes.
My takeaway: for now, the upper border of the red declining channel is the key battleground. What happens around this level will probably shape early next week’s direction.
Dow Futures Mini (YM.F)
The recent pullback in the Dow mirrored what we saw on the S&P - bears managed to push prices below the lower border of the short-term green rising channel… but not much further.
Despite that decline, the correction didn’t reach either the August highs or the mid-October lows and only slightly pierced the 50% Fibonacci retracement. That shallow move, combined with a fresh buy signal and a green pro-bullish opening gap, invited buyers back in. The result? A strong bounce and a re-entry into the green channel earlier this week.
However, the red descending resistance line remains intact. As long as that ceiling holds, momentum is constructive but limited. Only a clear break above it would re-open the path to retest the previous high.
My takeaway: The bulls are making progress, but unless they break that red resistance, it’s still a bounce.
Nasdaq 100 E-Mini (NQ.F)
On the above chart, we see that the correction reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level, overlapping with both the August highs and the mid-October lows (a well-defined support zone).
What’s interesting… the size of the drop after breaking below the green rising channel was almost identical to the height of that channel, which was a classic, clean move. When we combine this with buy signals from the indicators and a bullish gap… and it makes sense why buyers decided to jump back in.
Just like S&P, this led to an invalidation of the breakdown under the lower border of the red declining channel and triggered an attack on its upper border in the following sessions.
On Wednesday, bulls even managed to close the day above it. But unlike the other, Nasdaq still trades below its former rising green channel, which means that bulls will face a stronger technical ceiling there before they can think about higher ground.
My takeaway: momentum is there, but Nasdaq still lags. If bulls can’t push through the overhead resistance early next week, it might trigger a pullback.
On Monday, we dive deeper - H4 & H1 timeframes, more precise signals, clearer trade setups. If you’re tracking real moves before they hit headlines… that’s when you’ll want to tune in.
See you inside the Lab.
Anna
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