Today is about control.
The dollar is fighting to hold key support and push higher, while gold is starting to show the first real signs of weakness after a bigger rebound. Nothing is confirmed yet, but the tension is building. And when markets look like this… the next move usually comes from the level that finally breaks.
USD (DX.F): Holding Support, Testing Strength
The first thing that stands out on the daily chart is yesterday’s invalidation of the breakdown below the lower boundary of the declining channel. That alone shifted the tone.
Today’s Asian session tried to challenge that strength - dollar opened with a small bearish gap and briefly slipped back below the channel - but bulls stepped in quickly and pushed the greenback back above the lower boundary of the channel and the bullish gap at 99.40-99.46.
And that matters because this is no longer just a bounce - this is a defense of structure.
That strength carried into the European session, bringing the dollar back toward the 100 level and into a partial close of yesterday’s gap (still awaiting confirmation via daily close).
So, now we’re at the decision point.
Two scenarios are on the table:
- Scenario A: bulls follow through
If buyers hold momentum and close the day above 100, the next target becomes clear: the March 16 gap (100.25-100.36) reinforced by the earlier bearish engulfing pattern. And let’s be honest - that’s the real resistance. Therefore, the outcome there will decide the next move. - Scenario B: rejection at 100
If bulls fail and price closes back below 100, we may see a pullback below the upper boundary of yesterday’s gap, which will likely bring the greenback back toward the lower boundary of the channel and the 99.40-99.46 support zone. And once again - that’s where the next decision will be made (the key support zone).
In our opinion, only a confirmed breakout above the key resistance zone or a successful breakdown (confirmed by a daily close) below the key support area will indicate where the greenback heads next.
Gold (GC.F): Momentum Slows, Resistance Holds this section is reserved for Premium readers today.
While the dollar remains in a decision zone and continues to move between key levels, today’s broader picture becomes more interesting when we step outside the usual..
For a long time, our focus has been clear - gold and silver were leading the narrative. Yesterday, we added copper. Today… we go one step further. Because when you look across the market, sometimes the real opportunity isn’t where everyone is looking, but where something just starts to shift. And right now, palladium and platinum are quietly moving into very interesting technical zones.
Palladium (PA.F): Two Bullish Structures, One Direction
When we take a look at the daily chart, the bigger picture becomes clear. The sell-off that started at the end of January brought palladium into a strong support cluster, built on:
- July 2025 highs
- October and November lows
- and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from August 2024
That’s a heavy technical zone and… it held.
Despite multiple tests, bears failed to push lower and in recent sessions, buyers started to regain control. Now price has reached the first real obstacle based on:
- the upper boundary of the black declining channel
- reinforced by the March 18 bearish gap (1499-1536)
This is where things get interesting.
Daily indicators are already on the side of buyers, suggesting that momentum is building. And if bulls manage to close the day above 1536 effectively (…) a larger bullish scenario may be activated.
(…) But, let’s be honest, the path won’t be clean.
Overhead, there are still:
- additional bearish gaps
- reinforced by Fibonacci resistance levels
- and the upper boundary of the main declining channel (still above, but getting closer with each session)
So, this isn’t a free ride.
It’s a structured move with checkpoints.
Now here’s where it gets even more compelling.
When we shift to the H4 chart, we can spot a developing inverse head and shoulders pattern. It’s not confirmed yet - and that matters - because only a break above the neckline will activate the structure.
But if it does… → the rest of the analysis is available in in the full analysis today.
Platinum (PL.F): Quiet Strength, Waiting for Confirmation this section is available in in the full analysis today.
Today’s Takeaway
Dollar: holding structure but not confirmed yet. If we see a daily close above 100, it will likely open path toward 100.25-100.36. However, a drop below 100 will likely increase risk of pullback toward 99.40-99.46.
Gold: (…)
Palladium: (…)
Platinum: (…)
Execution Plan: (…)
Final Thought: gold and silver may still dominate the headlines but sometimes the best setups are not the loudest ones.
Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand before committing fresh risk.
Anna
P.S. With the upcoming holidays, a quick note on the schedule - there will be no Lab Notes tomorrow due to the US market closure. Additionally, as Easter celebrations in Poland continue through Monday, we’ll also be taking that day off.
We’ll be back with the next Lab on Tuesday.