Markets opened the session with very little structural change, which, paradoxically, is information in itself.
After the recent impulsive moves, we’re now sitting in multiple decision zones across the dollar, gold, and silver. Momentum cooled, but tension didn’t. This is typically the phase where the next directional move gets decided, not yet executed.
USD (DX.F): Downside Pressure vs. First Signs of Exhaustion
We’ll begin today’s Lab Note with a quote from yesterday:
“(…) What’s next?
H4 sell signals are still active, therefore, as long as bulls fail to quickly invalidate the breakdown below the green support zone, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
If buyers cannot reclaim and close the day back above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the risk of another leg lower will increase. In this case, the first downside target will be around the 96.60 area or even the next green support zone where the 61.8% retracement aligns with the late-January bullish gap (around 96.14-96.30). (…)”
Looking at the above charts, we see that the greenback followed our bearish scenario and reached the first downside target.
What’s next?
Well, now we have a bit mixed picture…
H4 indicators are already oversold and showing early divergence, suggesting that short-term bounce risk is real. However, on the other hand, the daily chart printed a strong bearish candle that closed two prior bullish gaps. On top of that, a fresh daily Stochastic sell signal keeps the broader pressure to the downside.
Taking all the above into account, it seems that if bulls can’t quickly reclaim lost ground (and come back above the previously broken 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), the path of least resistance remains lower. In this case, the next green support zone will come back on the table.
Gold (GC.F) & Silver (SI.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
Lab Takeaway
Today is less about forcing trades and more about reading reactions at key levels:
- dollar: watch if any bounce has real strength or just fades into another sell leg
- gold: 5000 decides who’s in control next
- silver: (…)
When markets pause like this, the smartest move is confirmation hunting.
Stay sharp, stay tactical.
Anna