Today is a good example of why we map scenarios before the market moves.
Several markets finally made a decision: the Dollar pushed higher, Palladium delivered on our bearish roadmap, Copper printed a fresh high, while Cocoa hit both downside targets from our September 18 setup. Elsewhere, the message is simpler - if price is still trapped inside the same technical structure, there is no reason to manufacture a brand-new opinion.
Dollar (DX.F): Bulls Keep Pushing
After yesterday’s another daily close above the psychological 100 barrier, Dollar bulls kept the momentum going today. They broke through the 100.37 resistance we discussed yesterday and attacked the next target we highlighted last week:
If buyers manage to break through that resistance as well, their next target would likely be the bearish gap at 100.67–100.72 from July 30.
So, what happens next?
Today’s close should tell us whether buyers still have enough fuel to keep marching north.
The bullish scenario is pretty straightforward: close the bearish gap and move on to a test of the 78.6% Fibo at 100.90. A break above that level would put the June and July highs - the 101.30-101.58 resistance zone - back on the radar.
And the bearish scenario?
If sellers defend the gap, they could trigger a correction of the latest upswing. Their first target would be the upper boundary of the black rising channel.
What would be a more worrying sign for bulls and invalidate further development of the current bullish plan? A daily close below the support area built around the 100 barrier and the upper boundary of the rising channel, around 99.95-100.
Gold (GC.F), Silver (SI.F), Platinum (PL.F), Copper (HG.F), Coffee (KC.F), Soybeans (ZS.F) and Corn (ZC.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
Palladium (PA.F): Bearish Target Hit
One thing immediately jumps off the chart today: the bearish scenario we originally published on September 11 has played out.
As a reminder:
There’s another thing worth keeping on the radar.
If bulls fail to invalidate yesterday’s breakdown, two bearish scenarios remain on the table. The first is based on the orange consolidation, with a downside target around 1266 - the 61.8% Fibo.
And today, sellers checked in around 1262, giving traders who followed that bearish scenario an opportunity to take profits off the table.
So, what comes next?
Today’s decline also pushed Palladium below the consolidation we discussed yesterday. That means another downswing toward 1235 - or even 1226 - cannot be ruled out.
What would open the door for sellers? A daily close below 1266.
What would invalidate this bearish scenario? A daily close above 1346.
Cocoa - ICE (CC.F): Both Targets Delivered
Let’s go back to our September 18 roadmap, because this one played out beautifully:
So, what now?
The first thing that jumps off the chart is today’s fresh bearish gap at 5663.50-5772. That gap has pushed price below the lower boundary of the orange consolidation and triggered another bearish setup.
That gives us two downside targets:
• target #1: 5344.75-5383.50 - an important support area where two Fibonacci retracements come together.
• target #2: 5253.95 - the measured-move target based on the size of the broken consolidation.
Fast-forward to today, and sellers delivered both downside targets during the latest sessions. Congrats to everyone who followed that bearish scenario and booked another round of profits along the way.
What now?
Today’s session brought a bullish counterattack and, together with the current indicator setup, suggests that a reversal may be just around the corner.
Still, we want confirmation before trusting buyers again.
For us, that confirmation would be a close of the 5663.50-5772 bearish gap, which is now the buyers’ first upside target.
Wheat (ZW.F): Sellers Reach Our Support Zone
Our September 18 roadmap remains the starting point:
What happens next?
With the sell signals still active and today’s session potentially forming a bearish engulfing pattern, another leg lower may be just around the corner.
Where could bears strike next?
In our view, their next target should be the 700-706 support zone. The battle around that area will likely decide what comes next → a bullish counterattack or another extension of the decline toward the lower boundary of the green rising channel.
Today, sellers extended the decline and reached that support zone.
Nevertheless, the battle around this area should now determine the next move.
There is also a fresh bearish development worth watching: today’s decline pushed price below the lower boundary of the recent 710-734 orange consolidation. We don’t have the daily close yet, so keep an eye on where today’s session finishes but if the breakdown holds, it increases the odds of another leg lower and at least a test of the lower boundary of the green rising channel in the coming days.
ATL Cheat Sheet - What Actually Matters Now
Dollar (DX.F): Bulls have already cleared 100.37 and attacked the 100.67-100.72 bearish gap. If they close it, watch 100.90 next; a break higher puts 101.30-101.58 on the radar. A daily close below roughly 99.95-100 would undermine the current bullish setup.
Palladium (PA.F): The 1266 bearish target has effectively been delivered, with sellers reaching 1262. A daily close below 1266 opens the door toward 1235, potentially 1226. A daily close above 1346 invalidates that bearish scenario.
Cocoa (CC.F): Both bearish targets - 5344.75-5383.50 and 5253.95 - have been delivered. Today’s counterattack suggests a possible reversal, but buyers still need to close the 5663.50-5772 bearish gap before we treat the comeback as confirmed.
Wheat (ZW.F): Sellers have reached the 700-706 support zone. Today’s move below the 710-734 consolidation adds bearish pressure; if the breakdown holds into the close, the lower boundary of the green rising channel becomes the next area to watch.
Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand before committing fresh risk.
Anna