This is not a trend day… this is a decision zone across the board.
The dollar is stuck at resistance, gold and silver are moving sideways, and all three markets are now waiting for one thing: a breakout (or breakdown) that actually means something.
USD (DX.F): Rejection at 100, Back to the Battlefield
We’ll begin today’s Lab Note with a quote from Thursday:
“(…) Scenario B: rejection at 100
If bulls fail and price closes back below 100, we may see a pullback below the upper boundary of yesterday’s gap, which will likely bring the greenback back toward the lower boundary of the channel (…)”
Looking at the chart today, one thing is clear - bulls tried, but failed, and the 100 level held. Despite multiple attempts, buyers couldn’t push through this key barrier, which activated the downside scenario we outlined, and the reaction was immediate.
Price not only pulled back, but also formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, which now reinforces the 100 level as resistance.
At the same time, the move brought the dollar back to the lower boundary of the rising black channel (as expected) turning the market into a clear battlefield between the resistance at 100 and support at the lower line of the channel.
So, what’s next?
This is where things get simple.
Why?
Because a daily close above 100, will likely open the path higher. However, a daily close below the channel will shift the bias lower.
Until then?
This is just a fight - not a direction.
If bears manage to break lower, the next stop will be the bullish gap at 99.40-99.46 from March 26, and the reaction there will decide whether this turns into a deeper move… or just another bounce.
Gold (GC.F) & Silver (SI.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
Today’s Takeaway
This is a “wait for confirmation” environment.
Dollar: increase above 100 = bullish continuation. However, a daily close below channel = downside move to at least 99.40-99.46.
Gold: (…)
Silver: (…)
Execution Plan: (…)
Final Thought: right now, the market isn’t giving signals. It’s testing patience.
Stay sharp, stay tactical.
Anna