The dollar remains stuck in consolidation just below major resistance, but precious metals are beginning to show visible signs of weakness.
Gold lost the important 4500 barrier intraday, silver continues struggling below its former support, and platinum sellers are slowly gaining momentum after another failed recovery attempt. At the same time, several markets are approaching key breakout-or-breakdown zones, meaning today’s closing prices may play a major role in shaping the next larger move.
U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)
From today’s perspective, not much has changed.
Yesterday’s bearish gap between 98.99 and 99.18 remains open and continues to act as the market’s first resistance zone, while the key support area is still holding firm.
In other words, yesterday’s commentary remains fully valid:
“(…) The greenback remains stuck in a consolidation range between key resistance - the upper border of the April 8 bearish gap around 99.68 - and support based on the bullish gap from May 15 (98.72-98.83).
In other words, until we see either a daily close above resistance or a daily close below that key support zone, sideways price action remains the most likely scenario for the next session(s). (…)”
Silver (SI.F)
Let’s start with the quote from yesterday’s commentary:
“(…) price swings in both directions inside the formation - including another retest of last week’s lows and the 50% Fibonacci retracement - should not surprise us. (…)”
From today’s point of view, we see that yesterday’s failed attempt to reclaim the previously broken black support line (which now acts as resistance) triggered another wave of selling pressure.
As a result, bears successfully reached our downside target and tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement (congratulations to the daytraders who took advantage of that move and locked in additional profits!).
That said, despite the latest decline, the broader picture has not changed dramatically yet.
Why?
Because silver still remains trapped inside the orange consolidation pattern, and as long as the price continues moving inside that formation, we continue to believe that the next bigger move becomes much more reliable only after silver finally escapes the range.
So, what are the possible scenarios?
- A breakout below the formation would likely open the door toward the next major support zone around 7000-7111.
- Could bulls still break higher? Yes, but for now, the bears appear to have the stronger hand.
Platinum (PL.F)
Let’s begin with yesterday’s quote:
“(…) the bears still have room to operate, including another test of the lower border of the consolidation and the bulls’ willingness to defend it.(…)”
Looking at the above chart, we see that yesterday’s failed attempt to close the bearish gap resulted in another leg lower and a successful test of yesterday’s initial downside target (well done to the daytraders who used yesterday’s bearish setup to capture additional profits!).
Still, just like in silver, the bigger picture may ultimately depend on whether the price can break out of the current consolidation structure.
If sellers win the battle around the lower border of the consolidation, the next most likely downside target becomes the support zone near 1885.
Today’s Takeaways
For Silver:
- watch the orange consolidation carefully because no confirmed breakout/breakdown = no reliable larger move
- break below the formation -> opens the door toward 7000-7111
- reclaim of the broken black support line -> would improve the bullish case
For Platinum:
- watch the lower border of the current consolidation
- breakdown below support -> opens downside risk toward 1885
- successful reclaim of the bearish gap -> would weaken the bearish scenario
Right now platinum still looks vulnerable after repeated bullish failures.
On top of that, today’s Gold + Palladium + Copper Lab Note (with all key levels + scenarios) is reserved for my Premium readers. And the timing is not random: we’re sitting at technical zones that can shape not only today’s session, but the entire week ahead.
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Anna