The markets seem to have pressed the pause button. Plus, the very little action that we see today still confirms what I wrote in my recent Alerts.
Silver futures are flat while gold futures and mining stocks are down – that’s yet another small confirmation of the disconnect between the silver market and the rest of the precious metals sector. They will all react to some factors, but silver has many more reasons to rally in the medium term.
Gold stopped at its rising resistance line and it’s moving back and forth around the $4,600 level – will it confirm the breakout above $4,600 and $4,500? I think that an invalidation is still the likely outcome as the dust seems to be settling after the recent attack on the Fed’s independence.
Miners are down today and while the above chart doesn’t explain how important the current price levels are, the below one does.
GDXJ’s all-time high is being tested, and I doubt that it will break given that the USD Index has been rallying despite the recent Fed-shocker.
So far, the rally is nothing to write home about. It’s another move between 97 and 100 – not yet a comeback above 100.
Most investors – that are not engaged in day trading – are likely looking at the USD Index and yawning. When the USDX finally reclaims levels above 100, the market will notice. The late-2025 attempt was close, but it didn’t succeed. The current attempt is likely to succeed because of USD’s recent resilience. The attack on Fed’s independence should – logically speaking – trigger declines in the value of the USD. It didn’t, which proves that pretty much everyone that wanted to sell the USD, have already done so. This means that the positions can now be reversed and that the upside is huge.
Not because everything’s great about the U.S. dollar – far from it.
But because things are not well in the Eurozone or Japan, either (remember – the USD index is a weighted average of exchange rates, and the EUR/USD and YEN/USD have greatest weights) and because the USD is so universally hated right now.
Moreover, let’s keep in mind that the USD Index appears to have bottomed from the long-term point of view.
The rising long-term support line was reached, and we saw a broad double-bottom just like in multiple previous cases after which the USDX soared.
Silver’s momentum is strong. Gold’s and miners’ momentum not so much, but it’s still present. When the USD Index breaks above 100 it could all end – at least for some time.
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Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder
Golden Meadow®
P.S. Yes, I know that you are aware of silver's bullish potential, but... do you have a precise exit framework? You might find the top opening sections of this page very interesting.