I’ll get back to the title of today’s analysis shortly. For now, let’s start with the key question:
Is the correction over?
That’s the question that you’re probably wondering about, so let me get right to it.
In short, the odds for that increased given the most recent moves, but I think overall they still favor another brief move up.
Let’s start with the silver chart as that’s where the intersection of the resistance lines is very clear.
As you can see, it’s still a few days away.
The line that goes right into the middle of the target is a line that I created based on the size of the initial rebound. I did that because the corrective upswings quite often take the form of a zigzag where both smaller moves higher are identical or similar.
It looks like silver could decline all the way down to $65 and then rally back up to $77.50 before plunging.
Of course, those moves don’t have to be symmetrical, and we can see another upswing shortly – before $65 is hit.
[Today’s GDXJ, USD Index, Gold, S&P 500 and Copper analysis is reserved to Gold Trading Alert subscribers. Those parts are being cut out from this publication.]
Having said that, I’d like to point out one extra factor that might be critical in the short-term picture. It’s Trump’s tendency to make major announcements over the weekend.
He knows that the stock market is declining, which he – obviously – doesn’t like. He knows that the war with Iran isn’t going well either. My take is that, he would very much like to provide some kind of relief announcement, and he’s likely to do so over the weekend.
This pattern is well documented. In his first term, JPMorgan tracked 146 market-moving tweets and created the "Volfefe Index" to measure their impact on Treasury yields. In his second term, the pattern intensified. The February 2025 tariffs on Canada and Mexico were signed on a Saturday. The Liberation Day tariffs took effect at 12:01 AM on a Saturday. The October 2025 "Don't worry about China" post came on a Sunday, triggering an $872 billion Monday recovery. And the most recent example: last Saturday evening, Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power plants, then reversed course Monday morning at 7:05 AM, sending the S&P 500 from -1% to +3% in under an hour. Wall Street calls this the TACO trade ("Trump Always Chickens Out"), and it has become the dominant short-term macro strategy.
Now look at where things stand today (Thursday). Iran rejected Trump's 15-point peace plan, and Trump posted on Truth Social that Iranian negotiators "better get serious soon, before it is too late." Israel says it killed the commander of Iran's IRGC navy, a key figure behind the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Oil surged back above $106 Brent. Polls show 59% of Americans say the U.S. made the wrong decision using military force in Iran, and 61% disapprove of how Trump is handling it. He knows the stock market doesn't like any of this.
That combination of rising oil prices, collapsing poll numbers, and an approaching weekend creates exactly the conditions under which Trump has historically produced a "relief headline." He did it last Saturday-to-Monday. He did it with tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He did it with China. I think the odds favor some kind of de-escalation announcement (or at least a "deal is close" post) between today and Sunday night, designed to give futures a boost at Monday's open.
If that happens, crude oil's local top (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level I marked on the chart above) would be confirmed, the USD Index would get its immediate-term pullback, and precious metals along with mining stocks would get one more push higher before the real decline begins. That's the short-term scenario I'm watching most closely heading into the weekend.
Of course, war has a momentum of its own, and Iran so far has shown little interest in giving Trump the face-saving exit he appears to want. If the weekend passes without a relief headline, the upside targets I described today become less likely, and we'd be looking at the bearish scenario unfolding sooner than expected. I'll be monitoring this closely and will update my subscribers accordingly and I invite you to join them. These are the final days of our extreme promo, and the precious metals market is very close to its next turning point, so the timing seems perfect. Join us today.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA