Neither breakdowns nor super-strong resistance levels. In this free analysis, I’ll focus on the former.
Every now and then, you get the kind of weather where you just know that while it’s still relatively calm, something’s about to happen – a rain or a thunderstorm. This is exactly how the situation in the precious metals market looks like right now.
We see breakdowns in some markets, and we see super-strong resistance levels being reached in others. And we have the same – bullish – setup in the USD Index that we have had for days now. Let’s start with the latter.
After trying to break the below the rising, short-term support line, the USD Index moved back above it. The invalidation of the breakdown is a bullish sign. The same goes for the fact that the USD Index managed to stay above the lowest of the neck levels of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
Of course, this is just a short-term addition on top of the bullish long-term chart featuring the USD Index.
The major bottom is most likely in. The USD Index had declined based on U.S.-centered uncertainty despite the fact that tariffs are fundamentally positive for the U.S. dollar. All those declines (since April) are likely to be reversed, and then the USD Index is likely to rally more.
But that’s not where we see changes and signs suggesting that something’s about to finally happen.
The above chart features a small breakdown in copper. Insignificant? Perhaps, but it’s still a breakdown that we see after three other attempts to move below this line. The situation is already different here.
Why would this short-term breakdown be important?
Because this is the breakdown from the flag pattern that was preceded by an enormous short-term slide.
The moves following flag patterns tend to be similar to the moves that preceded them. And the big moves in copper tend to be aligned with big moves in the precious metals market. Yes, the late-July slide was tariff-news-based, so it’s not that odd that gold, silver, and miners shrugged it off, however, if we now see another slide and it’s based on technical reasons (thus, it truly represents the market’s emotional state), the odds are that other markets would also be affected.
Besides, copper is not the only market where we see a small, but important, breakdown.
Platinum price just moved below its own rising support line after failing to hold above its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This might mean that the corrective upswing that we saw this month is over.
Again, the breakdown is not huge, but it is taking place at the same time when we see the same thing in copper, suggesting that those moves are not accidental – they appear to confirm each other.
Silver is not doing much; however, it’s already after several breakdowns – and it seems to be on the verge of another – likely final – one.
The key fact about silver is that the momentum is gone. This month’s short-term declines in the USD Index triggered only a moderate (or weak) response in the white metal. It seems that silver is waiting to decline MUCH, and it’s simply waiting for a trigger for this move.
The same seems likely for gold.
Earlier this month, gold futures rallied above their April high, and they even moved slightly above their rising resistance line. Both moves were invalidated, and gold declined shortly thereafter.
It has now moved below its rising support line based on the mid-May and late-June lows. This line then held several times, and this is the first time when we see a breakdown that is NOT being invalidated. The late-July attempt for gold to break lower was invalidated almost immediately, and the second attempt also failed. This time, gold moved back to the line and then declined some more.
That’s how breakdown verification looks like.
Again, on its own, it doesn’t seem that significant, but given the breakdowns in platinum and copper, it’s suspicious to say the least.
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Remember David Chen’s long position in UNH that I mentioned on Friday? It turned out that it was just profitably closed above his regular 2-to-1 win-to-loss ratio as UNH opened today above his initial profit-take level.
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I also have one other announcement. I’m excited about it, but I’ll try to keep it brief.
Namely, I'm excited to announce that we've just publicly launched Quant Precision by Inna Rosputnia - honored as "Leading Innovator in Wealth Management and Most Outstanding Woman in Finance 2019" by Wealth & Finance International.
Inna brings exceptional credentials to Golden Meadow® as founder and CEO of Managed Accounts IR, working with private investors, family offices, and professional asset allocators worldwide. Her work has been featured in Yahoo! Finance, FXEmpire, and major financial publications. You can read more about her fascinating journey from finance professional to award-winning entrepreneur in this detailed Authority Magazine interview.
Her first call proved impressive - when she predicted (using sophisticated POIV (Price, Open Interest, Volume) analysis, Money Flow and other indicators) S&P 500 would move higher last Wednesday, it shot up almost touching her exact take-profit target. Today, she published a follow-up analysis expanding on this successful prediction with additional market insights.
Quant Precision focuses on systematic futures trading across E-mini S&P 500, commodities, and US dollar markets - providing valuable diversification beyond precious metals analysis. Her institutional-grade methodology combines technical analysis with fundamental alignment across multiple timeframes, the same approach she uses for family offices and professional asset allocators.
Diamond Package members have had access to this expertise since Wednesday, alongside all other premium services. This expansion represents our continued commitment to providing the most comprehensive investment analysis platform available.
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All in all, my gold price forecast for August 2025 remains bearish.
Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. Its full version – my Gold Trading Alert – includes also more detailed discussion along with specific price targets. If you enjoyed what you read above and would like to get those premium details, I invite you to subscribe to my Gold Trading Alerts.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief