The market has shifted into a classic decision phase.
The U.S. dollar found support exactly where it should have - at a key Fibonacci retracement and a rising support zone - and buyers stepped in with conviction. Gold and silver, meanwhile, are no longer trending impulsively. Instead, both metals have transitioned into consolidation mode after recent rebounds, with momentum signals starting to cool.
This creates a temporary equilibrium: the dollar is stabilizing, and precious metals are pausing - waiting for the next catalyst.
As always in such environments, consolidation is not the end of the move. It’s the preparation for the next one. The only question now is direction.
Dollar (DX.F): Bulls Stabilize the Structure
From today’s perspective, the proximity of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the green rising support zone successfully attracted buyers. This technical confluence, reinforced by fresh buy signals from momentum indicators, gave bulls the fuel needed to regain control.
As a result, the dollar rebounded toward the 97 area and has since entered a narrow consolidation between 96.58 and 96.99.
Buy signals remain active, but as is typical during consolidation phases, the next directional move will only be confirmed after a decisive breakout.
Bullish scenario: a breakout above consolidation opens the door for a move toward 97.40 and potentially 97.54 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline).
Bearish scenario: failure to hold current levels would likely trigger a move back toward the key green support zone, defined by the 61.8% retracement and the rising support gap.
For now, the dollar is in stabilization mode, but the underlying signals still favor the bullish side unless support is lost.
Gold (GC.F): → this section is reserved for Premium readers today.
Silver (SI.F): Target Reached, Now the Real Test Begins
Let’s start this section with the Tuesday’s quote:
“(…) Although price is consolidating near the previously broken resistance around 8176 (38.2% retracement), bulls keep it above the previously broken barrier of 8000 and yesterday’s bullish gap.
Therefore, as long as these supports continue to hold, buyers are still the ones setting the tone. In other words, holding above it keeps the momentum story intact and leaves room for a push toward 8512. (…)”
From today’s perspective, we see bulls successfully pushed prices higher once again, reaching our previously identified upside target. Congratulations to those who acted on Tuesday’s bullish scenario - the market delivered exactly as anticipated.
Now, however, the environment is changing.
Momentum indicators have begun generating sell signals, but buyers are still maintaining control within the very short-term rising channel.
This detail is critical.
As long as the price remains inside this channel, the bullish structure remains intact.
A breakdown below the channel would likely trigger a corrective move, with the first downside target near the green rising support gap that opened earlier this week. Notably, the lower boundary of this gap aligns with the projected move based on the channel’s height, reinforcing its importance as a technical support zone.
At the same time, as long as silver holds above this gap and the 8000 level, bulls retain the ability to regain momentum and attempt another push toward 8500 and beyond.
Daily closes will be especially important in determining which side gains the upper hand.
Today’s Takeaway - What Actually Matters Now
Right now, all three markets are in transition - not trending, but preparing. This means today is about confirmation.
Here’s the practical game plan:
• Dollar: bias remains mildly bullish. As long as the support zone holds, the path of least resistance is higher. A breakout above 97.00 strengthens the bullish case toward 97.40-97.54.
• Gold: (…).
• Silver: still structurally bullish, but vulnerable in the short term. As long as the price remains inside the rising channel and above the support gap, buyers retain control. A breakdown would shift the short-term bias toward a corrective move before the next larger decision.
Bottom Line: the market is coiling. The dollar is stabilizing, gold is hesitating, and silver is testing its structure. This combination rarely lasts long. The next breakout - in any of these markets - will likely define the direction not just for today, but for the coming sessions.
Until then, patience remains the highest-probability position.
Stay sharp, stay tactical.
Anna