The new week started with a familiar theme across markets: hesitation.
The dollar is testing key resistance after a strong rebound, gold continues to dance around major support levels, and silver remains trapped inside a tight consolidation.
In other words - the battlefield hasn’t changed much since Friday.
What has changed is the tension building around several key technical levels. And as often happens in situations like this, the next decisive move will likely begin with a breakout… or a breakdown.
Let’s take a closer look.
U.S. Dollar (DX.F)
Looking at the daily chart, we can see that despite multiple attempts, bulls failed to close the Friday’s gap that appeared at the start of the Asian session. Friday’s price action left behind a candle with a long upper shadow, clearly showing where sellers stepped in and defended their territory.
However, bulls received some help today.
The Asian session opened with a large bullish gap, pushing the dollar back above the key resistance zone near 99.30. Thanks to that move, the greenback briefly climbed above last week’s high, but the victory didn’t last long. Buyers failed to hold those levels and the market quickly reversed, creating a pullback that now looks even more concerning given the sell signals generated on the H4 chart.
Still, we’re not writing the bulls off just yet.
In our view, bears will only gain a stronger argument for a deeper move south if they manage to close today’s bullish gap. If that happens, the support levels discussed in Friday’s Lab Note will quickly return to the spotlight.
And one more thing worth remembering: if bulls fail today, the bearish gap from Friday will remain active, continuing to act as resistance in the coming sessions (reinforcing even more the resistance zone around 99.30).
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Silver (SI.F)
(…)
From the daily perspective, not much has changed. The 8000 level once again held firm against selling pressure, confirming its importance as a major technical support for the white metal.
That defense encouraged buyers to step in, and unlike gold, silver managed to close its small Asian bearish gap. However, despite that positive development, silver remains trapped inside a very narrow trading range, which means Friday’s commentary remains fully up to date:
“(…) Despite these fluctuations, silver is still trading within a very narrow range, largely overlapping with the height of the green gap formed at the beginning of the previous week.
This means that only a daily close below 8000 would open the door for sellers to push the market toward lower levels. (…)”
What does the H4 chart show? → this section is reserved for Premium readers today.
Key Levels to Watch
Dollar
Resistance: 99-99.31 (Friday’s bearish gap)
Support: 98.98-99.46 (today’s bullish gap) / 98.65 (bottom of yesterday’s bullish engulfing formation) / 98.33-98.50
Gold
Supports: (…)
Resistances: (…)
Silver
Supports: (…) / 8000 / (…)
Resistances: (…)
Today’s Takeaway
Right now the market is sending a very clear message: we are still in a waiting phase, but the levels that matter are now clearly defined.
Here’s what traders should focus on today:
Dollar: watch the bullish gap created during today’s Asian session. If bears manage to close it, the probability of a deeper pullback will increase significantly.
Gold: (…)
Silver: the 8000 level continues to act as the line in the sand. (…)
Final Thought: right now the charts are not screaming direction. They are whispering something far more important: the breakout is coming. Therefore, in our opinion, the traders who stay patient and disciplined while the market compresses… are usually the ones who catch the move when it finally begins.
Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand before committing fresh risk.
Anna