The market situation really is crazy these days.
The situation in the Middle East has just worsened, and gold is doing nothing.
As Bloomberg reported:
“US President Donald Trump left the Group of Seven leaders meeting in Canada early to deal with the Israel-Iran conflict, playing down the prospects of a ceasefire in favor of “a real end.”
Asked by reporters aboard Air Force One Tuesday what that would entail, Trump responded a permanent end to the nuclear dispute with Iran would be the goal.
“An end. A real end. Not a ceasefire. An end,” the president said.”
This means likely escalation of the conflict and greater uncertainty at the same time. This is the perfect scenario in which gold – the king safe-haven asset – should rally.
Not only is this NOT happening, but gold is actually down ($14) in today’s pre-market trading.
Gold stayed below its early June high, and it completely shrugged off any rise in the above-mentioned conflict.
This kind of performance is truly remarkable.
On the currency front, we see that the USD Index moved back above its April bottom.
The move is small, but it is an invalidation of the breakdown, nonetheless. And as such, it’s a buy signal.
This, plus the very strong long-term support for the USD Index, together create a very promising picture for the U.S. currency, even though most investors will find that hard to believe (just like it was the case at the 2008 bottom).
My yesterday’s comment on the above chart remains up-to-date:
“The sentiment… Well, let me just quote a comment from below one of my articles (the emphasis is mine):
“The USD is slumping sharply, feels like that the United States is on the verge of collapse and downfall. Market sentiment is so crazy.”
Is the U.S. collapsing here? Of course, it’s not. Despite the current sentiment, please keep in mind that the USD remains to be world’s reserve currency, the U.S. has the world’s most powerful economy (think about the key global tech and AI players) and the world’s most powerful army. Please also keep in mind that the U.S. tariffs are fundamentally bullish for the U.S. dollar.
And yet, here we are. I’m not sure if many of you remember the USD sentiment at its 2008 bottom. Everyone and their brother thought that the USD was trash. And yet – it soared back with vengeance after this key low.
What happens if the USD declines more? Well, today gold is proving that it can decline even if the USD declines from here, and the same goes for mining stocks.”
Having said that, I’d like to tell you about a brand new, interactive tool that we just posted on Golden Meadow®.
It was just yesterday when we released the Golden Meadow® Portfolio Strategy, and today, we are supplementing it with a calculator which will quickly show you what we mean by various points in the above-linked report.
The Golden Meadow® Portfolio Calculator (enter an amount in the input box to see more) allows you to see sample sizes of your portfolio and make adjustments, and then it helps you calculate how many shares of a given asset to buy, and how much there is to gain (or lose) based on a given trade. This should help to put a single trade into proper perspective and help to eliminate situations where they get to enormous sizes.
I prepared both (the report and the calculator) based on numerous research papers, many years of experience and based on many conversations and message exchanges with my subscribers over the years. I put a lot of effort and care into this. This calculator is quite robust compared to what you'll find in most places online - it handles complex position sizing mathematics, risk calculations across multiple account types, and scenario modeling that most basic calculators simply can't do.
However, I might have some blind spots, I might have written it using some mental short-cuts or using financial jargon that's not easy to understand for everyone. I’d appreciate your help in making this tool even better.
Speaking of blind spots - that's actually something I've been thinking about a lot lately. Even after 20+ years in markets, I know I may have timing issues and analytical blind spots just like every other expert. The real challenge many of you face isn't just position sizing (which this calculator solves), but knowing which expert insights to prioritize when different analysts are giving conflicting signals.
That's why I'm planning to work on something that would be much more sophisticated than even this calculator - a system that could help optimize between different expert recommendations based on real performance data (more than that – even analyzing the way experts describe their forecasts to pre-determine their performance before they make market forecasts) and market conditions. If you think this portfolio tool is advanced, wait until you see what I have in mind for expert signal optimization. But more on that later - for now, this calculator should make your life a little bit easier.
Naturally, the calculator might still be missing some functionalities that you'd find very useful. In this case, please let me know (ideally in the comments section below; maybe someone will build upon your points and ask further questions / make further notes). If you enjoy it, feel free to drop a note about that in the comments as well. I want all this to be as easy to use and as valuable to you as possible.
Thank you for reading my today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses - sign up for our free gold newsletter now.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief