What a Rally in Stocks! What a… Lack Thereof in the Miners!

Miners have already decided what they want to do, and now they are simply waiting for a sign. And they are about to get it.

Did you see that major action that happened in the precious metals market yesterday? Neither have I – there was none. The situation on the stock market suggests that we’re about to see some serious fireworks any day now.

That’s where the above-mentioned trigger is likely to come from.

What a Rally in Stocks! What a… Lack Thereof in the Miners! - Image 1

Stocks soared recently. It is usually the case that people associate rallies with bullishness and declines with bearishness. Incorrectly so – bullish and bearish are terms that are about the future and forecasts, whereas a rally or a decline are terms that refer to the past – something that already happened.

Does the fact that a price moved higher make it likely to go higher in the future? No.

In fact, a price can’t form a top without a prior rally.

What does matter is an entire set of indications and context in which a given rally or a decline took place.

In the current situation, the rally in stocks is very much aligned with the same kind of action that we saw in early 2022, which also took place right after the concern about the military conflict peaked. Both rallies were sharp. In fact, they are almost identical in terms of sharpness. I marked the 2022 rally with a purple dashed line, and I copied it into the current situation. It turns out that the moves are extremely similar.

In relative terms, the current move up is bigger, but in absolute terms, the current move is smaller. It’s a tough call to say which analogy is more important, so overall, we can say that it seems that stocks have either rallied as much (approximately) as they did in 2022, or they are about to top.

Interestingly, if the 2022 rally is repeated to the letter, the S&P 500 Index would be likely to top at its previous 2023 top. Either way, the top seems to be either in or at hand.

And you know what happened to the prices of mining stocks when stocks rallied back close to their yearly highs?

Almost nothing.

Mining stocks almost completely ignored stocks’ rally! This is particularly visible when you focus on the shaded area. At the same time stocks rallied substantially, while miners plunged.

This extreme weakness is a bearish sign for the miners on their own, but it’s also a sign that when stocks finally do decline (again, any day now), then miners are likely to magnify those declines and decline in a truly profound manner. In other words, the profits on our short position in the mining stocks are likely to increase shortly.

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Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief