Over the past few sessions, we've seen several key technical levels finally break after days of hesitation and consolidation.
The U.S. dollar continues to build on recent strength, while precious metals remain under pressure as bearish scenarios gain additional confirmation. As always, the market doesn't care what we think should happen - only what buyers and sellers are actually willing to do when key levels are tested.
U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)
Looking at today's chart, we can see that bulls followed through on yesterday's breakout.
Not only did the dollar close above the key resistance zone we discussed over the last few days, but we also got the first daily close above the psychological 100 level since June 5.
Did today's small bearish gap at the Asian open (100.59-100.62) stop buyers from pushing toward yesterday's upside target around 100.80?
Not really.
The real obstacle turned out to be the upper boundary of the black rising channel near 100.91. That resistance attracted sellers and triggered a pullback that pushed the dollar below yesterday's close.
At first glance this may look concerning, but so far, we haven't seen a break below yesterday's breakout zone or the recently reclaimed March highs. In other words, unless we get a daily close below 100.50-100.53, today's weakness still looks more like a verification of yesterday's breakout than a full reversal.
What happens if bears manage to close the day below that area?
In that case, a retest of yesterday's bullish support gap (99.87-100.15) becomes a realistic scenario early next week.
Until then, bulls remain in control.
Gold (GC.F) & Silver (SI.F) & Platinum (PL.F) & Palladium (PA.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
Copper (HG.F)
Copper continues to struggle after losing the black support line earlier this week.
Wednesday's weakness ultimately resulted in a close below that key support level and the consequences appeared quickly.
Yesterday's session opened with a large bearish gap (637.25-649.35), which not only erased Monday's bullish gap but also triggered a test of the lower June support gap.
Today's selling pressure pushed price deeper into that zone and tested the lower boundary near 627.50-638.80.
Can buyers still fight back?
Yes - as long as that June support gap remains open.
However, with Thursday's bearish gap still hanging above the market, another retest of today's low and potentially the next support zone around 617-619 cannot be ruled out.
Until buyers start closing gaps overhead, rallies should be treated cautiously.
Today’s Takeaways
U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)
- Watch 100.50-100.53
- Daily close above that area keeps bulls in control
- Break above 100.91 opens the door toward the upper border of the bearish gap (100.75-100.95) from May 19, 2025
- Daily close below 100.50 -> look for a test of 99.87-100.15
- No confirmation = no trade
(…)
Copper (HG.F)
- Watch the gap 637.25-649.35
- As long as it remains open, bears remain in control
- Retest of the lower line of the June 12 gap (627.50) cannot be ruled out
- If this support fails -> test of the 617-619 support zone is likely
- Close above yesterday’s red gap would be the first meaningful improvement for bulls
- Until then, treat rebounds as counter-trend moves
Stay sharp, stay patient, and don’t force trades in unclear conditions.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Anna