Will crude oil prices hold above $60?
Crude oil closed 1.04% lower yesterday, dipping slightly below the $61 mark. The market continues to trade sideways, as expectations of increased OPEC+ production are keeping bullish sentiment in check.
However, today crude oil prices are up 1.5%, driven by renewed supply concerns. Key developments include the U.S. government prohibiting Chevron (CVX) from exporting crude from Venezuela and production shut-ins in Canada, both of which are contributing to upward pressure on prices.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- OPEC+ decisions: The market remains focused on any announcements regarding future production levels.
- Goldman Sachs outlook: Analysts suggest oil could gain if there is progress on global trade negotiations or a resolution to U.S.-Iran tensions.
- Tariff-related news: President Trump’s delay of EU tariffs until July 9 has eased immediate demand concerns and provided some price stability.
- Technical support levels: The $60 level remains key support, with the next major support around $58, based on recent local lows.
Conclusion
Crude oil continues to trade sideways this week as the market awaits greater clarity on OPEC+ supply decisions. Simultaneously, evolving geopolitical and trade news continues to influence sentiment - mirrored by this week’s stock market rebound following last week’s pullback.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil is consolidating above the $60 support level.
- Anticipated OPEC+ supply increases are weighing on upside momentum.
- Traders are closely watching this week’s delayed inventory reports: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – due today, EIA Crude Oil Inventories – due tomorrow.
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Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
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