I’ve lowered my target for Treasurys so often that it’s time to face the music.
The 73.69 ‘D’ Hidden Pivot shown in the chart is where this ETF proxy for the long bond is going, and it is not a pretty picture. The punditry, editorialists and TV bozos can blather all they want about the economy’s supposedly soft landing, but this is wishful thinking and just crap.
Interest rates are headed even higher, and this will crush markets that owe their artificial robustness to easy financing: cars and houses, to name just two. It will also turn the irreparable devastation in commercial real estate into a catalyst for the Second Great Depression.
The chart pattern is too clear to deny, especially since it has already worked several times to produce profitable ‘short’ trades on the way down. A second test of p2=85.44 could conceivably turn this cinder block higher, but we shouldn’t look for miracles.
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Rick Ackerman