On Friday, Aug. 8, 2025, gold futures just soared to new all-time highs, while GDX touched its 2011 high. What’s next?
What’s the gold price prediction for August 2025?
In short, despite how bullish it all might look at the first sight, there are powerful signs telling us that the reality is exactly opposite. The four most prominent ones are:
1. Gold, silver, and mining stocks are behaving exactly like they did at their 2011 top.
2. The flagship proxy for gold stocks – the GDX ETF – reached its ultimate resistance – its 2011 high.
3. The USD Index is after a long-term bottom and a medium-term breakout (and its confirmation).
4. The tariff situation is stabilizing with tariffs being indeed implemented, while the uncertainty around them is declining. That’s a fundamental reason for USD’s strength in the following weeks and months – and it’s in perfect tune with the Peak Chaos theory.
As far as the fourth point is concerned, I won’t elaborate on it today, as you can read pretty much everyone in the above-linked article.
Before moving to discussing those points, I’d like to emphasize that gold futures are already moving lower in today’s (Aug. 11, 2025) trading.
This is a technical sign confirming the points that I made above, and that I’ll elaborate on in the following part of the analysis.
Gold Price Prediction Based on the Link to 2011
The first point is where we have the most important details regarding the current outlook. Here’s how gold, silver, and mining stocks performed at the 2011 top:
Silver topped way ahead of gold and mining stocks. Then the entire precious metals sector moved higher, but silver didn’t move back to – yet above – its previous high.
Gold and miners moved higher, more or less at the same time, but gold stocks clearly outperformed at the very end of the rally.
The above chart is based on weekly candlesticks, so let’s zoom in for a more detailed view.
Looking at the daily chart, it’s clear that miners topped after gold did – first initially, and then they had a second top while gold and silver were already after their respective tops.
The same is taking place right now.
Silver already topped in July, and now it’s gold and gold stocks that are moving visibly higher.
Most interestingly, however, gold futures just matched their previous high (that’s how gold topped in 2011), while gold mining stocks moved to new short-term highs.
The history is rhyming here, and the fact that gold stocks just soared without a good reason (GDX moved to new short-term highs before gold futures matched their April high).
Why would any of those analogies make sense right now? After all, the world now and the world over 10 years ago are very different. The key thing remains the same, though. People didn’t stop being greedy when they see rising prices, and they didn’t stop becoming fearful when they see lower prices. And when people see similar price moves or are affected by similar – emotional – factors, they react in similar ways. This makes the technical patterns work over and over again in similar ways (not always, but often) across different economical and geopolitical landscapes.
Also, gold rallied practically as much now as it did before its 2011 top.
Gold Price Outlook – Long-Term Perspective
The rally that took gold from the 2008 top to the 2011 high and the rally from the 2018 bottom to the current top are very alike in terms of size. If we counted from the 2015 bottom, the rallies wouldn’t be that different, either.
The similarity between the 2011 top and the current top is also clear based on the triple top in the RSI (upper part of the chart) and the clear breakout followed by a sell signal in the MACD indicator (bottom part of the chart). Nothing comes close. Well, maybe the 2006 high, as that’s also where MACD moved visibly to new highs – gold topped then as well.
While gold approached its all-time high, the GDX ETF did the same thing (which is point 2 that I mentioned above).
This resistance is extremely strong – just as the one reached by gold.
Both resistance levels plus the similarity to how the precious metals sector topped in 2011 makes it likely that the uptrend will be reversed soon.
If the USD Index moves much lower from here, then the precious metals sector could rally further… But the opposite is likely!
The USD Index bottomed at its declining support line based on the 2022 and late-2023 tops and the lower border of the declining trend channel. After that, it rallied back above its Fibonacci retracement levels, invalidating the previous breakdowns.
All this happened while the weekly RSI moved below 30 and then back up – thus also flashing a medium-term buy signal.
This is a combination of strong buy signals of long-term importance.
On a short-term basis, the USD Index corrected 61.8% of its July rally – which is completely normal after a sharp rally. The USD Index moved back up after reaching this level (and its April low).
Finally, remember – this is not just a purely technical breakout. The tariffs are bullish for the USD, and the fact that it declined since the tariffs were announced is much more emotional than it is logical. As the uncertainty around tariffs is waning, we’re likely to see a huge recovery in the U.S. currency.
So, all in all, it seems that this is a massive shorting opportunity in the precious metals sector – not a time to be going long.
IF – and I want to emphasize that it’s a big IF – we see a confirmed breakout and it’s time to go long to capitalize on it, my subscribers know which four gold stocks are likely to provide the biggest bang for the buck in the upcoming rally.
For now, the outlook for the gold price is bearish.
As always, I’ll keep my subscribers informed.
Thank you for reading my today’s free analysis. Its full version – my Gold Trading Alert – includes also more detailed discussion along with specific price targets. If you enjoyed what you read above and would like to get those premium details, I invite you to subscribe to my Gold Trading Alerts.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief