Gold Price Forecast for November 2023
Gold didn’t just invalidate the move above $2,000. It moved even lower – that’s how we know the invalidation is real. And so are its consequences.
After gold’s suspicious rally, we see a very real decline. And the decline in silver and mining stocks is even bigger. Still, let’s start today’s analysis with the yellow precious metal.
Yesterday’s move lower by $6.80 might not seem significant but given the fact that the gold price tried to move above $2,000, this is really important. It’s simply not happening even though the situation in the Middle East is escalating.
Gold was likely to top with RSI close to 70 and about 1-2 weeks after the peak interest in “war” in Google News. That’s exactly where we are right now.
The interest peaked, gold made another attempt to move higher, and this is in perfect tune with what happened after the Russian invasion back in 2022.
Back then, that was the final top for the year, even though the conflict got uglier and uglier.
The same appears to be happening right now. The situation in the world might be getting worse, but markets move much more on emotions and sentiment than they do on real events, news, and logic. Of course, the latter influences the former, but it is the former – the emotional part is the key.
All in all, the current prediction for gold prices is bearish.
Also, while on the above chart, you can see that gold moved relatively close to its all-time highs and well above its early-2020 highs, we can’t say the same thing about silver or mining stocks.
To be clear, what you see on the above chart are not even all-time highs for silver or junior miners, but the dramatic underperformance and weakness of both is crystal-clear.
Silver is somewhat above its early-2020 high but well below its mid-2020 high, and closer to the latter.
The GDXJ ETF is well below both above-mentioned highs – it’s actually trading close to the early-2023 lows… Making our current positions in it profitable.
Yes, this is extreme underperformance. And you know when we saw this kind of weakness? In 2013 and 2008, right before and during the early parts of the huge price declines.
THIS is the moment to be prepared – after the precious metals market declines significantly, a lot of gains on this move lower will already be over. Being prepared now is what your future self will likely thank you.
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Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA